dj3

I can remember when I was growing up always going directly to state college's AFD anytime a significant event was being modeled. Incredible how much more detailed and how much more it sounds like they generally enjoy the discussions.

I'll enjoy 2-4 falling in colder than typical temps at night where everything should stick. I think potential on this has been limited more and more by how fast moving this will be. Pattern looks better in the longer range maybe something to watch the weekend of the 16th like was shown on yesterday's 12z Euro.

Flurries in Collier Twp, hopefully a good sign we won't be fighting dry air at the start of the event?

Yes the boundary is too far south and the storm develops too far south for us. It also looks like a weak POS for pretty much everywhere compared to the good runs it was spitting out from the earlier runs. I'll settle for any snow since it has been non-existent this winter but with these trends we could end up with nothing.

Looks to be cold Thursday night for when the snow would hopefully be falling.

It’s still early in the week but I would like to see the GFS include a few hits in there for us.

Never good having the Euro as the most amped. I’d feel much better if the GFS was on board. It did well with the storm today for the mid Atlantic.

Looks like both it and the GFS are moving away from the mega cutter idea from yesterday. That look from mid next week on looks much better than yesterday. Hopefully it is catching on to something?

Cutter on the 1st and nothing happening on the follow up wave. Basically a frontal passage.

That period looked promising for several days last week if I'm remembering correctly. Now we are sitting under a massive ridge in a shutout look for that weekend.

pretty significant change for Jan 2/3 on the gfs. Much flatter look with the first wave although still results in just a colder rain. Maybe that period isn't quite dead yet for tracking?

I agree and to your point earlier I'm not sure if it is better for them to be a fringe playoff team rather than have gone in the tank. But now that we are where we are I'd rather them just make the playoffs as I don't think it would make more than a few spots difference in the draft. Will be interesting to see where they decide to address in the first round. None of the Quarterbacks are projected to go very high at this point and I think they have holes to fill on the offensive line and several spots on defense.

The easiest path to getting in might actually be the division. Root for the bengals to lose 2 of 3 and us win 2 of 3 should leave us in first.

I think 2 out of 3 gets them in. I think they have a decent shot at beating Cleveland and Baltimore.

Haven't had much time to look at ensembles but noticed the 6z GFS pretty much continued to dump trough after trough into the west the whole way through. Have the ensembles shifted away from the idea of the trough migrating east as we head into the new year?

I can't believe there has not been even one threat to track at this point and still nothing popping up in the immediate future.

Agree with you, I'm not a Franklin fan despite his ability to recruit. I would have preferred they not extend him and gone a different route with someone younger/more unproven albeit possibly a higher ceiling. I think it could have been a good thing if he had been offered and taken another job. It would have given them a chance to get out of Outback Bowl purgatory.

5 players in the top 80 on ESPN from what I see. Surprised to see them steal a few Ohio players as well.

Punting the 21st threat to focus on keeping the Christmas eve storm south of us at 240?

Was going to post in the western PA thread that overnight runs looked like we may have something to track early next week. Glad I didn't with the way 12z looked.

I know the pattern is going to suck when... 1) The only interesting thing to talk about is the specific causes of said pattern suckage. 2) I can't find any posts of 45 day snow maps from wx bell in any of the regional sub-forums. 3) The MJO charts appear 4) Stratosphere talk

I think the base state of the pacific being crap for the last several years is the direct reason for less frequent and less intense cold intrusions. Is that something we will see more often than not with a changing climate? I don't have enough knowledge to have a clue. Anecdotally, I find it funny that we used to worry about the warm tongue all the time as our big problem and in the last few years there haven't been as many slop storms to worry about mixing.

Hadley cell? Haha, I read in the New England forum enough that I had to insert the joke.

I'll put up with the zzzz's for the next 10 days if we can have something to track by the holiday week. I'm impressed how cold it feels today with temps in the 20's. Probably speaks to how few cold days we've seen recently.

Euro has been hinting at a little disturbance moving through in the Sun/Mon time period. GFS not biting at this point but something to watch over the holiday maybe?