Normandy Ho

Let’s see what this big meso on the south side can do. Thankfully thus far beryl has behaved

Morning trends are not the friend of houston. It would appear the turn north has already started and there won’t be much more westward progress. Looks very likely to come ashore east of Matagorda bay, somewhere west of Galveston bay. This puts all of metro Houston in the Eastern eyewall. regarding intensity. It’s got 24 hours till landfall, incredible conditions for rapid intensification (especially aloft). It’s currently sitting at 988 or so. Given the time over water and favorable conditions, a landfall in the 960s is not out of the questions. Given the broad core, not sure the winds that translates too (maybe 100-115 mph). Will begin updating family and friends and checking in them in Houston.

So you quoted me to simply repeat what I said lol. Cool. It was more eloquent at least.

^i feel you. Now is the time to banter tho as beryl is in the middle of the ocean. Once we get closer to game time / landfall the banter will slow

I think you are analyzing this the wrong way. It’s not the beryl is a sentient being that can overcome shear at will. Beryl has a certain relationship with shear that, frankly, models and Mets missed (and that’s fine, happens). What that relationship is I don’t know. But during this storms life it’s always been in a high shear environment and thrived (and still is btw). Each storm is different, and this one does well with shear. Others don’t. To your point though, can’t use past success to predict future success for beryl. What happened in the carribean is in the past

I think because this storm has been so unpredictable thus far in the face of adverse conditions, I get where Ryan Maue and Eric Webb are coming from. It’s not the same condition as Harvey, but Harvey also wasn’t a north moving storm with a HELLISH jet stream to the north. There are also very high CAPE values in the new gulf as well. Both could potentially really help this storm fire deep convection and ventilate it well. I honestly have no idea how intense it will be. I think the cap is a major but that’s also dependent on track (does it move further up the coast and get more time over water?). Just gotta watch and see, I don’t envy the NHC with this storm (and they have done great so far)

This bruh. Legit don’t understand at all what the fuck is going on with this stupid storm

Haircut time!

Excellent point @gymengineer. This is why I’m very nervous for the upper Texas coast. At this point I’m hoping for an east trend to TX/LA but that seems wishful at this point

As a native houstonian who now lives in Cali…..I’m very very nervous. If you want a hurricane in Houston, these are the model plots you want to see (because they always adjust north when a western gulf storm recurving). Add that to the fact that the fucker crossed Cozumel when zero models showed this……ya I’m nervous.

I say it tongue in cheek since they are the OTHER board. That being said I find him too conservative as a forecaster and he doesn’t make adjustments to his thinking when things aren’t going as planned (both intensity and track). He’s def knowledgeable tho I just use others guidance more than his.

Come on man don’t post S2K bullshit on here. The mets AND amateurs here are far more knowledgeable than him

I can’t anymore with this storm lol. That can’t be a pinhole

What’s funny is beryl isn’t even done. This season could have four or five beryls potentially (long track majors)

Yep was gonna say those mountains definitely did something because the core looks savage right now on radar and IR. Started happening right as it approached the island

People who are saying this is weakening must not understand what they are looking at. I get that shear was suppose to upend this but we have to look at what’s happening in real time. It ain’t weakening. Now admittedly it ain’t pretty, has a very odd structure but it’s obviously still very intense

Usually when you see this signature, ten hours later you have a 180 mph monster. Wild wild storm

I’ve seen enough. The TUTT isn’t shredding this thing. The major shear axis has already been pushed to over and just west of Jamaica. All the TUTT did apparently was piss it off. Best we can hope for is steady state from now and a miss south of jamaica

This is perfect timing for recon. Monster convective burst commencing

I digress as this is a beryl discussion and perhaps a separate thread can be made for building code construction, but cost of living in California isn’t actually related to our building codes being stringent. It does impact cost of construction, but land values are high because of the weather in Cali (and proximity to all types of natural forms entertainment like beach, snow, mountains, etc.

Well the why we are in this situation is complicated and is more to do with how we are set up as a society. But at a holistic level poorer countries having better building construction in vulnerable areas than a world “superpower” is unacceptable. And this low frequency of wind events I don’t buy as a reason / justification. Hurricanes have demolished communities for decades upon decades and this country refuses to change building codes to match the situation. Same shit with tornado alley. The only place we have even remotely modified building codes to mitigate disaster is in seismic zones. After north ridge and and the Frisco quake of 1989 Cali codes were incredibly revamped, and nobody complained about costs because it had to be done to protect the life and safety of the people living in these buildings. This even caused mass retrofitting of existing buildings to make them safer (and again nobody complained about costs, and if they did I’d didn’t matter because it became the law) That level of detail and action does not occur in hurricane prone zones, even in Florida.

To add more to the construction/ damage convo (which interests me since I’m an architect and love seeing how our structures perform against the big bad wolves). I cannot imagine how terrifying it must have been for people In These houses….hiding in a corner under a mattress while the wind just plows through the inside of your house, sucking out all things from inside since the roof is gone. scary scary shit. the fact that there are not hundreds of people dead is a damn testament to these islands and how they build. The United States of improper building codes should fucking take notice. Make all gulf coast states design to the same code as California seismic code (which is equivalent to designing for a cat 5 more or less without getting too much into the weeds). Just watch when one of these monsters comes ashore in the US, going to be really ugly.

I still think we get 2-4 NS in July. I dont think there is going to be an unfavorable period in this season, just varying degrees of favorability. If we are getting a cat 5 damn near in June this season is trying to tell us something (nevermind the cat five developed under less than ideal conditions to begin with)

Shout out to those concrete exterior walls that undoubtedly saved hundreds of lives yesterday. United States wood framed construction would have been flattened by these winds

That’s impressive damage. Those tiny islands have more resistant structures than our coastal communities do in the US