Normandy Ho

The GFS solution of reformation is definitely off the table now. Strong burst near the LLC with obvious strong NW and N inflow into the convection. The MLC is dying off with nothing but westerlies beneath.

This likely will give good insight into what the 1938 hurricane looked like.

You can see right now on satellite what the GFS is trying to do. There is an MLC further SW that is very apparent, however the current LLC ain't going away. Brand new convection already firing near it.

The ICON is downright terrifying. East across the FL peninsula with a stall over the Atlantic just east of Florida. Then meanders north into the Carolinas (and eventually up the east coast). Does all this while staying a major hurricane. Wild times ahead.

Has to be one of the most gigantic wind fields in recent memory. Putting 99 MPH gusts on Bermuda while passing 50 miles north is wild.

East Coast crusher. Gonna be a lot of sleepless nights coming up.

All we can do is wait for the Euro. God bless the NHC and their forecasters.

Moving very slowly across FL with a big ridge over head. Might come back west.

GFS caving big time

Easily a TD. NHC might as well start advisories.

Storm is already starting to cook just N of the ABC islands.

Until the GFS stops this center relocation it can't be considered as a viable solution. What I'm seeing on satellite indicates a sheared but very strong low level cyclonic vorticity signature just ENE of the ABC islands. This will likely tighten overnight as it passes north of the ABC islands, and by tomorrow we should have TCG with a sheared but potent LLC. This likely stays sheared until passing Hispanola, but in no way is it randomly reforming south and west because its being sheared. We just saw this with Fiona. It was badly sheared with a very vigorous and closed LLC as it headed west. the MLC trailed behind until the shear let up, and then the LLC instantly took over and it exploded (LLC did not REFORM east). For 98L, it will be the same exact process. All aboard the Euro train!

Spurious vorticity development at hour 48 is the only reason this is not swept NE across SE FL on the GFS. It jumps W and S randomly. Not buying it.

Lets see what the GFS says. I am predicting a massive cave to the Euro with landfall on the FL peninsula.

Another thing to consider, the vorticity is consolidating just east of the ABC islands....which is west of the Euro's consolidation. In short: SE and SW FL looking like they are in trouble. I'm fairly confident that GFS solutions won't verify now.

I believe the Euro here is showing the easternmost outcome for this system. More than likely this runs up the coast and comes in a bit further west. Angle of approach is going to be important.

Looking at the morning model suites, I am starting to believe more in an eastern solution where the cyclone recurves across the FL peninsula. The GFS is spuriously developing vortices that keep this unorganized until the NW Caribbean. Morning visible images and ASCAT confirm a tight closed circulation, and I see no reason this doesn't stay consolidated. This spurious vorticity causes it to get much further west than it would if it were an organized cyclone. I also think the GFS is underselling the interaction between the first trough and the cyclone. A trough that strong isn't going to just tug this north and leave it, especially if the storm is already a hurricane upon interaction with the trough.

GFS is insisting the first trough has little effect on our cyclone. Not sure I buy it, buts lets see how it plays out

Synoptically it makes sense. The trough is very transient and fast moving and the storm is very far south. Additionally there is a monster ridge building in behind the first trough.

As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing: - Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table) - Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL. What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above. Even if it misses S FL to the east, it just means an East coast strike further up the coast. In short: US is in SERIOUS trouble with this one.

Euro is getting veeeeeeery close to Halifax with a 927 mb storm.

The Euro shows the potential for an S FL / East Coast Strike. The bend north after the recurve is a bit unsettling....

They have a pretty great handle a few days (3 or less) out. But to expect them to predict a tropical cyclone will form five days out? Thats a big ask IMO. Would like a promets thoughts though.

Why would models be any good a predicting medium to long range cyclogenesis with accuracy? That's an extremely big ask, especially for something so small in scale like TCG. The best approach (which many DO NOT take) is to wait and see before making grand nonsensical statements calling a season dead. Not calling you out cptcatz at all, just saying a statement in general. Oh and I'll also mention Idub should get the screename change to iWeenie.

Looking forward to the eyecandy over the next two days. Fiona is about to get WILD