Normandy Ho

Considering the extreme wind damage and short duration of max winds because of the small size of the core, I see no issue with the 165 mph landfall. There is likely a chance it was even more intense just offshore before the eye started filling. Are there any pressure readings from landfall?

That damage on that pic is Wild. Easy cat 4-5 damage

Absolutely vicious cyclone! Small and compact too. Wonder when the next recon is scheduled (if there will be any before landfall)

Completely wild intensification in the face of shear. Radar out of Barbados shows a very tight core https://www.barbadosweather.org/Radars/LeafScripts/BMSRadarProducts.php

People are sleeping on this. Could be a big hit for puerto Vallarta (may come in just south but tough to tell). Storm is really cranking right now

That streak might come to an end soon with the BOC system. Looks like another weak shorty which is on brand for the year

Radar out of San Juan would suggest this is reforming just ENE of the PR. The prior circulation seems to have ejected north and dissipated

Totally agree I’m shocked it’s slammed the Antilles like it is with so much rain. thought for sure this would turn north further east. Any thoughts on why it’s got so much further west?

Seems like this is going to be less of a Fujiwhara and absorption and more of a send Rina north first and the Philippe follows

Looking at the GFS vs Euro, Phillipe and 91L hold the key to the future of this system in my opinion. The Euro is sending both aforementioned systems much further west. if the Euro is correct there are too many players on the field for this subtropical system to develop. if the GFS is correct and both 91L and Philippe recurve together, that opens up the western basin for this subtropical system.

I don’t see too much potential with this one beyond Ophelia. I see potential for a subtropical storm but not something of hurricane strength because of cooler waters and this coming in at a higher latitude. Will def still track though. The season of east coast lows continues!

61 sustained is impressive for a system labeled 70 mph.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the waters Ophelia are in now we’re not really touched by Lee. Lee’s wake is well east no? In any event fantastic tropical transitioning going on, we are lucky to have it occur so close to land so it can be documented in radar

There has been a lot of discussion in whether or not this should be classified because it has a front attached to it. I’m wondering at what point would the NHC ignore this (let’s say if they find hurricane intensity winds eventually). Do you all think the NHC would ignore the frontal nature and just name it anyway for public awareness? Not saying that happens here but just as a discussion point

This is the most super interesting thing to me too. If El Niño is no longer a hurricane suppressant……then what are we looking at in terms of future hurricane seasons? What does a La Niña look like with record warmth? What does neutral look like?Would love met thoughts.

Now THIS is a setup that can crush yall

My point is this. My man said on 9/19 that the MDR is relaxing and implying that the MDR is shutting down. Models all show a very active MDR the next 8-10 days. This same line if thinking was used to assume the last four weeks would not happen when all seasonal models said it would. If modeling is showing an active MDR why imply El Niño is going to hamper it when there has been zero evidence of traditional El Niño impacts to hurricane development this year? You are right climo does begin to shut down the MDR but that goes without saying. it’ll be interesting the studies done on this season

Not sure what you are seeing. We have a major hurricane threat for the islands In next 8 days with an additional system behind it in the GFS. There are no signs of the MDR shutting down until early to mid October. People have gotta let the El Niño go lol it has lost. Clearly something else is going on that is allowing the basin to produce in an epic fashion despite this El Niño.

While there euro and GFS disagree on intensity, one thing they do agree on is the likelihood of an enhanced wind jet north of the center spreading into the mid Atlantic. Two things I’m watching: how quickly it organizes before approaching the coast and how far east does the low track.

An eastern shift here is the rare occurrence where it could yield to a stronger landfall further north. Nice little sleeper system here

The MDR is fools gold for landfalls this year. Lee was the closest chance we had. That being said this will continue train of cyclones kicking the Turkey shit out of El Niño

That’s nonsense thinking. That’s like saying there’s no agency in the world that could have prevented the 60,000 people who died in Katrina because the NHC doesn’t exist. Agencies give warnings and warnings lower risk of mass casualty. Don’t have a put your head in the sand and throw your hands up mentality.

I would not characterize them as infrequent anymore. They happen every year at this point and need to be tracked by an agency

Jesus man this storm is either gonna hit y’all and be the end of y’all. Or miss y’all and be the end of y’all. These models are wild!

Yea this is the weeds in here if you want science go to the tropical analysis thread