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Normandy Ho

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Everything posted by Normandy Ho

  1. Impressive stuff in those vids . Between this and the tornadoes in SF we are in for a hell of a ride the next 50 years
  2. We are certainly due for an average year, but my fear is that sea surface temperatures have raised the bar of average. I do think we see less than last year though but not by much.
  3. Starting to really come together just ENE of Honduras coastline. I was hoping it would dive southwards enough to get buried but it looks like it will gain just enough latitude to stay offshore
  4. Real time trends suggest that the depression has a dual lobe structure. The west lobe is diving WSW and will be inland shortly over Honduras. The eastern lobe is currently stationary east of Nicaragua, but should begin to move WNW. The sloppy structure and close proximity to land makes me think we got away with one here in the US
  5. Land interaction looks to save us here. It’s already getting very far south
  6. Would be an extreme wind event for S Florida due to fast motion
  7. with the active November on going, we might have a top hurricane season if all time when it’s all said and done. Unthinkable considering where we were in July and august lol
  8. Yowza. S FL got a problem on its hands I think
  9. It’s theoretically possible but the synoptic pattern to drive a TC NNW through the gulf without impacting land on either side is challenging to achieve. Odds are less than 1% I’d say. It’s more likely to get a recurving baroclinally enhanced storm hit LA, and even then it wouldn’t be a hurricane
  10. With the GFS showing a carribean cyclone train starting early November, might actually back into hyperactivity. Wild season
  11. If @Windspeed can notice this yesterday morning, than the national hurricane center can to. The “it’s a small system” isn’t an excuse this time. The NHC’s policy of not naming something until recon gets there bit them in the ass time. Got to use other data sources other than models and recon. Especially when it’s THIS close to land. No excuses. hopefully Oscar doesn’t get too strong today because everyone in it’s path is unprepared.
  12. It’s ridiculous. They deserve all the smoke for this literally asleep at the wheel
  13. To put it in perspective the El Reno tornado was 2.6 miles wide, barely smaller than this eye
  14. For sure. But yesterday when it was passing north of PR there were signals it had a closed circulation. I think the NHC overall has a more conservative policy re: Naming systems and that’s fine, but you might run into situations like today where Oscar suddenly appears. I hear your point though
  15. No other way around it the NHC dropped the ball here
  16. Is what it is bruh the NHC is DONE after Helene and Milton if land isn’t on the table lol. And I get it, but this has been a slop TC for a minute
  17. Serious question. Why is this not named? I don’t understand the NHCs policy with respect to naming tropical cyclones. I mean I get that we don’t want to waste man power on useless advisories for a namewaster, but then let’s change the criteria
  18. That’s a good shout. Tracy is an interesting case study and makes me wonder if it was a bit more intense than realized. A cyclone that small is essentially producing a tsunami like water rise which has to have tremendous wind to generate it at such a small and localized scale
  19. The only small storm I can think of that produced a significant surge was hurricane Andrew (16 feet I believe). For the small storm to produce substantial surge it basically has to be a cat five nuclear grade cane. Even charley didn’t produce much.
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