Normandy

Starting to really come together just ENE of Honduras coastline. I was hoping it would dive southwards enough to get buried but it looks like it will gain just enough latitude to stay offshore

Real time trends suggest that the depression has a dual lobe structure. The west lobe is diving WSW and will be inland shortly over Honduras. The eastern lobe is currently stationary east of Nicaragua, but should begin to move WNW. The sloppy structure and close proximity to land makes me think we got away with one here in the US

Land interaction looks to save us here. It’s already getting very far south

Would be an extreme wind event for S Florida due to fast motion

with the active November on going, we might have a top hurricane season if all time when it’s all said and done. Unthinkable considering where we were in July and august lol

Yowza. S FL got a problem on its hands I think

It’s theoretically possible but the synoptic pattern to drive a TC NNW through the gulf without impacting land on either side is challenging to achieve. Odds are less than 1% I’d say. It’s more likely to get a recurving baroclinally enhanced storm hit LA, and even then it wouldn’t be a hurricane

With the GFS showing a carribean cyclone train starting early November, might actually back into hyperactivity. Wild season

Let’s go bruh. Fantastic news

If @Windspeed can notice this yesterday morning, than the national hurricane center can to. The “it’s a small system” isn’t an excuse this time. The NHC’s policy of not naming something until recon gets there bit them in the ass time. Got to use other data sources other than models and recon. Especially when it’s THIS close to land. No excuses. hopefully Oscar doesn’t get too strong today because everyone in it’s path is unprepared.

It’s ridiculous. They deserve all the smoke for this literally asleep at the wheel

To put it in perspective the El Reno tornado was 2.6 miles wide, barely smaller than this eye

For sure. But yesterday when it was passing north of PR there were signals it had a closed circulation. I think the NHC overall has a more conservative policy re: Naming systems and that’s fine, but you might run into situations like today where Oscar suddenly appears. I hear your point though

No other way around it the NHC dropped the ball here

Is what it is bruh the NHC is DONE after Helene and Milton if land isn’t on the table lol. And I get it, but this has been a slop TC for a minute