Hoosier

Anybody can say that, because your statement is based on climo. But big outliers/extremes do come around once in a while.

On the plus side, the 12z Euro is probably about as "bad" as it gets from a big storm perspective.

Main low heading south on the Euro. End result is a system with lower totals overall.

12z Euro is showing signs of being at least somewhat north of 00z.

Thinking of playing Prince on Monday. The days of the month line up beautifully... 12/31/1998 ... 1/31/2022?

Again, the thing you like to see is the consistency on multiple suites of guidance of a band of around 2 feet or more, even if the placement of it shifts/doesn't agree. It's remarkable to see something like that being modeled in this region of the country and not just on 1 crazy run of 1 model.

If I saw that swath without the state outlines, I'd probably guess it's somewhere on the east coast. Truly remarkable stuff.

Despite what I said in my other post, I'd be lying if there wasn't some sense of personal deflation after that run. Have to constantly fight the urge to overreact to individual runs at this point.

The more important thing is that it's still a very big snow on the Euro. I'd be more concerned if there were significant backing off on amounts in the main corridor than shifts in placement at this point. The stakes are high so we'll probably be living and dying with each model/cycle more than usual. Lol

Very impressive around Chicago for a 10:1 mean at this distance. IF we can get the heaviest synoptic band to run through the area combined with such a prolonged period of lake enhancement, there's no telling what could happen.

On my phone but you can see them on COD.

A few of the gefs members are crazy... talking like 3" qpf in the snow area.

South but it did increase amounts compared to 12z and now also has a band ~2 feet.

Do you happen to remember what kind of amounts the GFS had for GHD II around this lead time (not necessarily for Chi metro but in the heaviest band?)

Pretty good 00z GFS run overall (though IND posters will hate it). Actually still room to go bigger though...

I mean, the 18z GFS didn't really have a great overlap and still managed to produce a band of 12-18". Shows the kind of potential that we're dealing with.

Just some brief thoughts. At the risk of jinxing this, I think we're getting close to being able to lock in a significant storm for somebody. Would take a pretty epic model backtrack for that not to happen. The bigger questions are where and how much? I believe what will determine whether this will just be a big storm or a mega/top tier storm that is passed down through the generations has to do with where the main system tracks and how much overlap there will be between that and the initial snows. If there's a nice overlap, then it *could* be something truly epic.

I can only imagine what we might see on the NAM when it gets in range.

I'd have to check to see if there are any synoptic similarities but something that crossed my mind is a northward displaced version of the December 2004 storm.

Interesting. Must be enough EPS members north of the op for it to look like that.

That puts ORD a little above 15" for the season. I did that work (looking into sub 15" heading into Feb) a few days ago for nothing. Who knew there would be a lake effect bailout of this magnitude.

From the "that'll work" department MAZ007-015-016-019-022-023-290930- /O.CON.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.220129T0500Z-220130T1000Z/ Eastern Essex MA-Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA- Eastern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA- Including the cities of Gloucester, Boston, Quincy, Plymouth, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown, and Vineyard Haven 322 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 24 inches with localized 30 inches possible. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph. * WHERE...Portions of eastern, northeastern and southeastern Massachusetts. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 5 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely difficult to impossible. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Considerable blowing and drifting snow along with near white out conditions at times. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is possible at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle.

There you is. And yes, let's.

Getting some scraps from the LES. We'll see how much of an inland push there is...

It's clown range of course but that is a pretty wide band of 2'+. Few storms in this region have pulled off such a large area of 2 feet. Typically it's an isolated pocket or a very narrow band when it does occur.