Hoosier
-
Posts
47,183 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Hoosier
-
The beginning stages of this starts showing up on the HRRR/RAP runs later this evening (Sunday) lol
-
The Canadian is actually kind of the compromise right now, if you want to call it that.
-
Euro doing its best to join what has been an atrociously performing UKMET.
-
No guarantees and each system is different, but if you had to ask me if I'd rather be riding the southern edge or north of where the modeled heaviest axis is right now, I know which one I'd pick. Have seen too many times over the years anything from drifts to rather large leaps north in the few days prior. Anecdotally that seems to happen more than south trends with bigger events. Lots of factors at play though so who knows which way this will go.
-
Would obliterate the record storm for IND by like 10 inches (they have kind of a low record)
-
Quicker should be north but it's not this time. What's the issue in your view? Sorry I have like no time right now.
-
Just glancing quickly but seems like main storm actually came out a tad quicker on this run?
-
That initial overrunning delivers in a hurry.
-
Kinda surprised today's 18z run is already out, though I've never really paid attention to the timing.
-
They go out that far on 18z?
-
The elite big dogs in the Midwest generally last the better part of 36-48 hrs at a given location, which could happen this time too *if* things play out right. Helps to make up for not getting the insane 4"+ per hour bands that happen on occasion in nor'easters.
-
I think that Dec 2004 storm is a good comparison to what we are seeing on some model runs, at least from the 21st century. Though the mega totals would probably be farther north than that one IF it were to play out. The GFS, GGEM, prior Euro runs are unlikely/rare outcomes, but not impossible. High end totals like that are not without precedent in certain spots in the region. Whether or not any particular person here has seen that in their backyard before is not super relevant.
-
Wanna drive on I-65?
-
Who do I have to sell my soul to for #41 on the 12z Euro ensembles? I can't even begin to imagine what that would be like.
-
Speaking of that, brutal gradient between LAF and IND on that run.
-
I never remember seeing that on the GFS this close in. There are exceptions but the GFS seems like it tends to be more conservative with snow amounts at this range. At least that's how it used to be.
-
Satisfactory run
-
^Thanks guys.
-
Not gonna go all Alek with a final call but I'm pretty confident in 6"+ locally... about as confident as can be at this point (like 80-90%). Synoptic part would really have to have a large failure to not reach that as I'm also factoring in some lake contribution.
-
Can someone post the individual 12z EPS members?
-
Snow really blossoms on the 18z NAM between 78-84 hrs. Axis is generally south of other models though.
-
Some implied big members on there with a mean like that.
-
Foe areas around northern IL/IN, there will be some melting of existing snowpack in the hours prior to this storm. Extent of that tbd. The early stages of the storm looks like it could be a wetter type of snow with marginal thermal profiles, which would at least lay down/replenish a base for the windy/fluffier part.
-
Stay tuned because the initial overrunning comes into view at the tail end of the NAM in less than 2 hours from now.
-
I could be wrong but seems kinda hard to draw up a scenario with lower max totals than the 12z Euro.
