Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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There's been a general north trend on the modeling today.
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A few of the 18z GEFS are pretty much off the charts. Like almost scary to contemplate what kind of disruption there would be.
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I almost wonder if there was some coordination on being cautious of snow maps on social media. I read that line in 2 or 3 afds.
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RC wrote a great afd that laid it all out.
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Thought the same thing. There is sort of a lagging area of snow.
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You really just have to sit back and marvel at some of this model output. Wow. Wow.
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Would obviously prefer more breathing room, but am cautiously optimistic about reaching double digits locally.
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Yeah, I was wondering how the offices are going to handle it. May not completely stop precipitating, but looks like there could be some relative downtime in some areas.
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Great to hear from you as well. Was concerned.
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Looks like the 18z NAM will be a little north.
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Wow, long time no see. How's it going?
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To add on to my earlier post, there are several very large hits into Chicago on the EPS. Most members obviously have the better stuff south.
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12z EPS has that roughly CMI-TOL bullseye.
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You're close. Official totals at Chicago ORD were 21.2" in 2011 and 19.3" in 2015.
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Would see wild drifts out in the country. The zone where that max band is is very rural for the most part.
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Would be near blizzard at a minimum. Talking about the main storm. The initial overrunning will be too wet and winds will be lighter then.
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More to come.
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That is actually a rather significant change in the handling of the main system from the 00z run.
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The later period might be better though
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It's a case of 1 vs many. A modeler could explain this better but basically the ensemble members have tweaks made to them, which leads to varying solutions. Sometimes the operational run of a model will look like many of its ensembles but sometimes not.
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Large % of members have more than 2" as there's a lake signal. But your point is a good one. Always check the individual members.
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Not saying the Euro will be right, but dontcha think this is a little different scenario?
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Yes I stayed awake for the 6z NAM. It's the weekend haha St. Louis gets about a foot of snow in roughly 15 hours verbatim. As mentioned earlier, this thing looks like it's going to come out swinging with a pretty rapidly developing snow band w/good rates.
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00z Euro ensemble mean has the heaviest axis roughly CMI-TOL
