Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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I have a lifetime pass from the Chicago crew for starting the GHD I thread.
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Little bit of an unusual setup with the lake enhancement/effect in IL/WI. Often with a synoptic system passing by, the flow would eventually back and send the band into IN/MI. But in this case, it just kind of keeps moving west before eventually fading.
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Heaviest band, wherever it is, exceeds 20" storm total imo.
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Kind of a large range but I think 10-15" is a reasonable guess around here. Worst case scenario would be just under double digits imo. Favorable banding/little bump north could push things over 15"...
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Never really done this but I'm sort of segmenting this one in my head. Hyper focused on Tue night into the first part of Wed, and then whatever will be will be.
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Looking at forecast maps/soundings, you can really see how bone dry the airmass aloft is on the northern end/just north of the progged snows tomorrow night into Wed. The hope for folks there would be that maybe things can saturate a bit better than shown.
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Haven't looked but my guess would be there are a significant number of northern members.
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2 feet here and still ripping at the end of the run. 30" would def be in reach.
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I think we're gonna have a great idea Wednesday morning if we're going to have a big storm or something truly epic, because we will have seen how the initial band has been performing. RC laid out the favorable factors for heavy snow with that.
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Euro actually cut the highest snow amounts compared to 12z run. It's all relative though.
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I feel like I have to check the Euro before going to bed in times like these. But if I don't fall asleep quickly, then I'll be laying there thinking 'the 6z NAM is coming out soon' and I'll feel like I have to check that. God what a hobby.
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Sleep schedule might be brutal the next few days.
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Would be curious to go back and look at the NAM/GFS runs ~3 days prior to GHD I and II
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Gonna be real... never in my life did I think I would see model output like this anywhere near mby within 3-4 days.
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Once again you can argue that this run didn't even quite reach full potential. Crazy to say that.
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Climo brain
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Getting nervous huh? We just gotta hope we run out the clock before too much more of a north shift.
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I don't know... I'd be pretty nervous if I were on the southern edge.
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The katy bar the door run.
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Must be some ridiculously amped members for the mean to look like that. Caveats about long range SREF apply.
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Back edge of the snow is still around Kansas City at the end of the 18z Euro.
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Assuming no funny business with how the main system ejects, you really couldn't draw up a much better setup for a record/near record breaking storm wherever the heaviest corridor sets up. Long duration with multiple rounds of good rates and improving ratios with time. Also, while it will be windier with time, likely not looking at extreme gusts so not as much concern about dendrite fracturing, etc.
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Glad he didn't include message boards.
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Thanks. I hadn't seen those yet. I still maintain the overall/general trend had been north today prior to that.
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The one time that I wish the ensembles had Kuchera. Good chance that is 50" on those most extreme members.
