Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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Yeah, just watch for trends. I think it was Stebo who made the point that stuff like the HRRR/RAP has a limited domain and really only uses obs/data from inside the US, which is probably why they are prone to large error in their latter timeframes.
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Definitely can start incorporating the shorter term models for tonight's portion.
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How did nobody from Chicago post about the 12z GDPS?
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You wouldn't necessarily want to focus on whether high temps are warmer than expected, but rather if the actual boundary is lagging behind. It's very common for temps to exceed expectations in a warm sector.
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3z run was actually over 17" Large cluster of ~14-20" on the 9z run that you mentioned.
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3z SREF mean is just shy of 18" here. One of the highest means that I can recall seeing around these parts.
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6z HRRR brings it. Really hits on the lake enhancement around northeast IL/northwest IN too.
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This is largely due to the change in the handling of the main system. Not quite as good of an overlap on recent runs.
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Model exhaustion. At least the short range models can be taken a lot more seriously for the initial round as we move throughout the day Tuesday.
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Not sure I buy the model attempts to shut off the snow here in between waves, although that is kind of a technicality as it should lull with little accumulation for a while. During that downtime, think there could be some light snow blowing in from the lake as low level flow may be just favorable enough to have the lake enhanced activity not entirely in IL.
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RGEM is kind to Chicago w/lake contribution.
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You're not kidding. Rains til almost 6z Wed here lol
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Yes way Certainly within the realm of potential outcomes.
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21z SREF mean is over 16" here, and that's with 4 unrealistic members that are under 5". Wild.
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Whatever the case, 18z Euro = old data. 21z RAP newer data. (Ok I'll stop riding the RAP so hard now)
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I have a certain Prince Rogers Nelson song playing right now. Let's hope it works.
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You're looking good. Hope you can beat that.
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Yeah, good point about the NAM dry air tendencies.
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What's the record there?
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Oops, I did it again Comparison of RAP runs valid at 00z Wed
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I'm ashamed to admit I have been following the RAP since it got in range, and it was actually too far south initially with tomorrow night's overrunning.
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*clears throat* That is not the full run. Only the final 24 hours of it.
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Could be anecdotal/bias but I feel like these tend to drift north more than south at the last minute.
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Random NAM forecast sounding from tomorrow night near Kankakee. Note the fairly steep lapse rates aloft. As has been mentioned, should get some pretty good snowfall intensity.
