Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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Noticed something interesting in Chi metro. Go west to DPA and they currently aren't reporting precip despite radar being lit up like a Christmas tree. Currently 30/20 at DPA.
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It may have already been snowing when I made that other post. I hadn't looked outside for about 15 mins prior to that.
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Coming down nicely here now.
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Changeover taking a little longer to happen than most models indicated around here.
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Probably. If those kind of totals occur with the progged parameters, that would be pretty impressive. I think the main system would have to shift north to get over 20" in Cook.
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It's been cold seemingly forever up until today. I don't think it's that much of a factor.
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I came north for that one. I recall it being drizzle/light prior to changing over. This is full on moderate rain now.
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Seems like the heaviest axis came north? Just going off of memory.
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Been raining good. I'd have to think on it but can't recall this amount of rain right before as big of a snowstorm as this looks to be. Usually it's more drizzly/light if it occurs.
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Was looking at some forecast soundings for Thursday in the LOT cwa and there's a pretty deep isothermal layer around -10C to -12C, which is right on the edge for getting good dendrites. But a lot of the lift is higher up. Ratios will be above 10:1 but there's not the greatest dgz/omega alignment.
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Good stuff and reason for optimism on the northern fringe. Question is if it can overcome the feed of dry air.
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Given the overall state of the models and now getting into hi-res range, and with added lake contribution, I am pretty confident in at least a foot for downtown Chicago. Certainly a higher ceiling than that though depending on things like banding and just how significant the lake can contribute.
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Serious torching southern sub.
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Actually, the 18" max is only through Wed night.
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Looks like LOT has around 18" max in the forecast for parts of the cwa. But we want at least 20, don't we?
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Haven't done an extremely detailed comparison but the current placement of the rain band seems to be on the northern end of guidance at the very least.
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Let's all go to the new thread now: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/56747-feb-1-3rd-ghd-iii-part-3/
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It's worked in the past with prior GHD storms though.
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Every member on the 15z SREF is above 10" for GYY, with a big cluster between 14-21" or so.
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18z NAM may try to come north with main low.
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Could be overdone, but it's not implausible. I think we're gonna come in over 15"
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Thanks for weighing in.
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When I was in LAF and we had 17" in the Feb 2007 storm, I recall there being 10 foot drifts in the outlying areas.
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Yes indeed. Mentioned that last night. This isn't really a case of the models simply being too wet just because. The evolution of key features changed.
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Do you have any thoughts on the lake enhancement potential in the area? I don't want to say the parameters are God awful the whole time, but... lol Inversion height get pretty shallow at times, like 4k feet with considerable drying just above. Sufficient delta T up to that level though. Seems like the most aggressive guidance may be overdone. Thoughts?
