Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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Don't want to lock this one in here yet, but if it comes to pass, the symmetry with the dates of the 2 big storms last year would be amazing. Practically identical gap on the calendar, just shifted a day or two later this year.
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Need an emergency update of your final call.
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Squarely a daytime event too, unlike GHD a couple weeks ago.
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Unless there is a reversal later in the run, early read on 18z NAM is that it may bump southeast.
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Hasn't been talked about much but could envision there being a band of about an inch of sleet, possibly even a bit more in some spots.
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On a very local level, one thing I'm curious about is if the cold front will get a little lake enhanced bump southward with the cold water temps and the main surface low still well upstream Wed night/early Thu. Would not materially affect things too much other than maybe a slightly quicker temp drop.
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For the LOT cwa, at this point I think there's enough confidence to start talking up a sig-major storm/impact in the area, while expressing the uncertainty that remains particularly farther north in the cwa.
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Taking a look at the Euro wind fields and expected snowfall rates, even its tamer output (compared to GFS/NAM) would be flirting with blizzard conditions in some areas.
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If that combination were to happen somewhere (which I'm not at all sold on), it would probably be south of the city.
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Hopefully the Euro comes north so that the baby stepping in messaging toward a higher impact event can begin. Logic would say that it would come north, but who knows.
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My observation over the years is that objects like trees and powerlines react more quickly to whatever the air temp is. The ground is a trickier thing. Coming out of cold spells, we have seen instances of the ground lagging and taking longer to warm above freezing even after the air temp goes above freezing. Conversely, the ground *can* take longer to cool off after air temps drop below freezing.
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Winter 2021-22 Short/Medium Range Discussion
Hoosier replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Quit advertising your screen name. -
The rates are definitely a factor that could mitigate icing amounts if they're too high. It's been cold and with a relatively short duration of warm temps, I don't think it will take long for the ground to start icing up after temps fall below freezing (especially untreated surfaces) and trees/powerlines should start freezing even quicker than the ground.
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If something resembling the stronger models verifies, it's going to result in an outsized impact for whatever amount of ice that occurs. Just a tenth or two of ice with 40+ mph gusts would act more like a quarter to half inch would in light winds.
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Curious how the op run will fit in compared to the EPS.
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Pretty large spread between those aforementioned models.
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Off the top of my head, can't recall a storm that produced a foot of snow and that much ice in Chicago. Not gonna be easy to pull off.
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Slight change in the orientation (sorry had to lol). More snow farther north out west.
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Agreed. Not going to back off on this run.
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That was my amateur take... good hit into the city if it went out farther. Felt like talking about the 84 hr NAM is bad enough let alone beyond.
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Quite a band of ice on the 00z NAM. Probably would have trouble accreting that with the rates.
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Almost seems like tradition to get a jacked NAM run. Let's see if 00z heads toward one or perhaps it will be on Monday.
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Maybe a little north of 12z? (Going off memory)
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Not bad. I thought you were doing worse.
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Very impressive to get 1/8 mile vis with such light winds.
