Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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I'm wondering if they will pull the flood watch a row or 2 north. It's gonna be a mess. Mentioned this before but my yard gets standing water with basically anything more than showers. I should time lapse it on Wednesday night/Thursday lol.
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Thanks Nate. Quite a bit of snow too. In a general sense, always want to be aware of warm layers aloft taking longer to cool. And it's not necessarily apparent by looking at 850 mb temps as the warm nose is more like 750 mb in the sleet zone.
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I think LOT could arguably go with a watch from about I-80 or I-88 south. Then convert to advisory on the northern end as it gets closer if there's not a northern shift. Not fun being a forecaster right now.
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Maybe you can scratch and claw to 4+ with some lake enhancement.
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Final final call 3"?
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The funny thing locally is that there is decent agreement on ~4-8", but it gets there in completely different ways. On the northern end of the foreign models and on the southern end of the American models.
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The EPS have been north of the op run with this. We'll see if it happens again shortly.
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Annoying storm The sizable model differences have almost taken some of the fun out of the anticipation. Not enough evidence to really get excited.
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We'll see what the Euro offers up but even if it's still relatively south, I think the hand is going to be forced into beginning to roll out watches this afternoon.
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I have big news. The 15z RAP is in.
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Honestly I think they're both (GFS and Euro) gonna cave toward each other. The spread between them is so big right now that it's a little hard to imagine one of them nailing it. And as said, the EPS is a red flag for me that something north of the current op Euro is very much in play.
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That's a little risky imo, especially given that the EPS has consistently been north of the op Euro. I feel like the course of least regret would be a compromise of some kind, but not overweighting the op Euro.
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Somebody ought to post a side by side of the Euro and GFS snow maps for the lolz.
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Don't get much more of a spread than this at 2-3 days out when the stakes are as high. Unfortunate scenario for the offices in the zone of highest uncertainty.
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If there was any thought of the 00z Euro shifting north toward the American models, try again.
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None of the GEFS members are as far south as the Canadian. Not even one.
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I think some earlier runs had an area of 3" qpf
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Wonder if any office is going to feel confident enough to pull the trigger on a winter storm watch with the overnight package. Obviously not the greatest confidence in where the heavy snow band will be, but with an ice component in play, maybe could get away with one for combined impacts even with lower than usual confidence.
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Laughable spread between that and the RDPS for 3 days or less.
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As someone who has been through a couple very significant sleet storms, here's some advice for anyone who gets accumulating sleet. Try to get rid of that layer as soon as possible. Don't let it sit there for a bunch of hours and give it time to really solidify.
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As far as free sites, coolwx.com has them. Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet is usually a good approximation.
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In the spirit of the guy in your profile pic (I fully expect brutal payback for this run of good storms at some point)
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18z Euro news?
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10-15" seems like a reasonable call for the heavy band for now. Hopefully it can juice up even more though.
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18z GEFS still pretty much north.
