Hoosier

No blizzard warning upgrade from LOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1138 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1108 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 Only some minor tweaks to the forecast late this morning, with no changes to the active headlines. Warmer low-level thermal profiles are lingering across the far southeast CWA this morning and will likely lead to a couple hours of mixed precip at onset (as noted by recent reports of freezing rain/drizzle in Iroquois and Ford counties.) This may cut into snow totals slightly, but make little change to the expected impacts. As with previous shifts, consideration was given to upgrade the southeast CWA to a Blizzard Warning. After coordination with bordering WFOs, opted to hold on to the Winter Storm Warning as the the coverage and longevity of conditions meeting strict blizzard criteria mid to late afternoon may be too short. Additionally, the somewhat warmer profiles noted above may keep snowfall character a little wetter. Either way, very dangerous travel conditions are expected roughly in the 2-7pm window around and south of a Pontiac to Valparaiso line. Near blizzard conditions also remain likely at times in primarily open areas between that line and the I-80 corridor. Another area to watch is around the I-88 corridor west of and into the Chicago metro where a stacked 850-700 hPa F-gen axis is generating a narrow but moderate to heavy precip band aloft. Some 12Z CAMs latched onto this band, but the dry air feed from the north will erode this band to some extent near the ground. Will continue to monitor this axis for the potential for a quick couple inches of snow. Kluber

Snow is underway here.

The strong banana high type signature to the north all but assures a messy/icy transition zone somewhere.

Temp has quickly gone from being in the 50s down to 36 now, with a bit of assistance from winds coming off of the cold lake.

The 5z RAP was actually a tad north of the 3z run. Might as well wait up for the 6z run which is currently running.

What I posted was not meant to imply anything in regards to where the surface low is going to track. I didn't check the current frontal position. That could be spot on for all I know. Just noticed that temps behind it are not dropping off as quickly, which is probably going to further reduce the already questionable freezing rain prospects over the next several hours.

Models are not handling the temp drop behind the front very well. Almost every 00z run is too cold with temps in northern IL at 06z.

Had the same thought to myself upon seeing the 00z GFS. Very stingy on the northern end.

With so much negative vibes, how about that 3z RAP. Not gonna ride it, but it's getting into the range when it's not automatically trashworthy.

Could be a valuable ob for folks downstream in the coming hours. Thanks.

I've about had it with this system lol. Still going to look at the models of course but now we are getting to the point when we can watch upstream radar and obs to see how things are going.

LAF attempting to reel one in? Tricky call around there though with timing of changeover being crucial in what is not a very long lasting event.

Cold front on the move. Subfreezing air at the surface does lag by a decent amount.

I miss the old days when we waited to hand out model awards until after the storm occurred.

I'd say it's been a tad more resilient than I thought it would be. Temps have been in the 50s and dews in the 40s for several hours now. Was assuming nothing but piles would survive.

Landscape has become a mix of patchy snow and grass. About 50/50 grass and snow I'd say. Bigger piles are still around of course. Some of the patches might be able to hang on until temps drop below freezing.

Not sure I'd want to be on the southern end of the snow band for this. There are 2 potential ways to underachieve there -- delayed changeover to snow (with this not being a particularly prolonged snowfall, even being off by 1-2 hrs could make a difference) and the dry slot. Hope for the best.

Nice lake plumage on there.

Airport

I wouldn't get too hung up on that map.

LOT afd again mentioning near-blizzard conditions. Not sure if it will clearly be far enough over the threshold for them to upgrade to a blizzard warning later on, but will at least be close. In terms of observation sites to watch for, GYY would probably have the best shot given their closer proximity to the lake.

May go boating imby

Uh oh... 18z NAM more snowy around northern IL overnight.

Probably, if you cut the amounts by about 70%

Went home quick to get something and noticed my backyard is an icy, water logged mess. This is before a single drop of rain has fallen.