Hoosier

Happy Saturday to you too Phin.

Y'all are fortunate to be able to discuss Ukraine in here. Random mods will come in and delete it in other subs.

Was thinking about beavis' comment about summer wx being more reliable in JJA in contrast to winter wx not being as reliable around Chicago. I think there's some merit to that. Think about it. Summer months and months that are adjacent to summer have a tighter range of temperature anomalies than what can occur in winter. It simply cannot get as far above or below average in summer. Around Chicago, a few degrees below average in summer still feels reasonably summer-like, but a few degrees above average in winter means you are probably going to start melting any snowcover that you have, and it has been a struggle to build up any decent snowcover this winter especially north/west of the city. Chicago is better than a lot of other places for wintry wx, but it's still kind of living on the margins with not a whole lot of room for error.

After the extremely sluggish start, ORD is one really good storm away from ensuring an average snowfall season. A series of smaller ones would do it too of course.

Also impressive to have a 55 degree swing with the high temp still ending up significantly below the average high. Shows how ridiculously cold that the low was.

Everybody makes mistakes sometimes. Even the mods and admins.

Wow, you're back!

Call me crazy, but I think this is the time for some of the areas that have been snow starved to start to rally. It looks like a gradient type pattern, which means that wintry wx would be less likely for the OV (not impossible, but less likely) with the better snow chances being farther north.

There's some decent bands but yeah, would like to see a better presentation.

Will have to dig into it more later, but some signals that the lake plume could temporarily hang up somewhere around here tomorrow. Better convergence at that time as well.

I knew it was bad in the northwest suburbs and up toward MKE, but didn't realize just how sluggish it's been. The total snow to date at RFD is the lowest since 2002-03.

Somebody in LOT should be able to pull out 5-6". Most favored area would probably be near the lake.

It's basically a gradient pattern and this kind of look is not uncommon in Ninas. You'll probably want to be significantly north of 40N to have a shot.

This may come as a shock, but the short range/hi-res models are generally more juiced.

Heading into this storm, it's going to look exactly the same outside as it did heading into the 2/17 event... just piles and drifted areas of snow left.

Oops, wrong thread and can't delete for some reason.

Heading into this storm, it's going to look exactly the same outside as it did heading into the 2/17 event... just piles and drifted areas of snow left.

Not to steal Alek's final call, but this feels like around 4" here. I suppose it could even go slightly over if things break favorably. There are some steeper lapse rates aloft so could see some heavier bursts of snow at times.

DC seems to be doing ok this winter. 12.3" so far, which is above average to date.

Did not expect it to be this chilly here at this time. Possible that the lake is helping to reinforce a farther south frontal position or things are just a little farther south in general.

NAM seems like it's having those saturation issues that it sometimes has. It has that goofy, splotchy look to the precip.

Going to have to scratch and claw it would appear. Still a decent lake signal which should allow for some locally higher totals near the lake.

Pretty much through the OV.

GFS may bump a smidge north.