Hoosier

What good is your screen name if you can't resist the ice?

I'm going bold and predicting a band of 2-4"

Will be watching to see if ORD can tag 70 tomorrow, as it's going to be the only shot for a while based on how things look in the extended. The first 70 has not happened until April for the last 4 years.

I'm sure somebody will pull at least 3"

We have a reversal of what we have gotten used to seeing at this range, as the GFS is south of the Euro.

That was some day.

This thing is going to be coming almost immediately on the heels of near 70 degree temps this weekend. Gotta love this time of year. Actually wouldn't mind it missing imby. Reaggravated an old lower back injury recently that has me walking around like a 90 year old and would be nice to not have to be paranoid about slipping and falling. Usually takes a week or two to calm it down.

Well, this is close enough

Really getting tired of the crappy Decembers. Not asking for a lot in that month, but it has been absolutely pathetic lately. At least February has been coming through though. It's been a very impressive run of Februaries. Have to wonder what is going on with that month... is it a random temporary cycle or is there something bigger driving it.

After being denied a chance to start storm threads in February, I will not be denied once more. Doesn't look like a big storm, but likely to have wintry wx.

We want 70 on Saturday.

The NAM often struggles in the boundary layer for some reason at this time of year. I don't know if it thinks there's going to be snowcover or something. Would definitely side with warmer guidance.

Here are the DJF maps. Sort of an average temperature winter in the bulk of the sub, with colder than average north and warmer than average south.

Estimated 140 million covid infections in the US based on seroprevalence data, though that is probably an underestimate as explained toward the bottom of the article. Wisconsin has the highest reported seroprevalence at 56.1%, with Vermont the lowest at 17.8% https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/health/140-million-covid-19-infections/index.html

Fair enough. Been in a stretch of April snows in recent years (April has even been outsnowing March around here) but hoping we can avoid it this year.

You wouldn't be dealing with that yet if you were still in Lakes/OV.

11:59

^There's an omission in the Chicago records. There was a record high min in February that I remembered Chi Storm posting about. Checked it out and it happened on Feb 16 (low of 41 degrees).

Here's the meteorological winter recap for Chicago and Rockford. Interestingly, the high temps were above average and the low temps were below average at both sites. Not the easiest thing to pull off in such urbanized areas. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 1136 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022 /1236 PM EST Tue Mar 1 2022/ ...A Look Back at the Climate for Meteorological Winter (December, January, February) 2022 for Chicago and Rockford... At Chicago, the average high temperature for the winter season was 36.6 degrees, which is 2.0 degrees above the 1991 to 2020 average. The average low temperature was 20.8 degrees, which is 0.8 degrees below normal. The mean temperature for the season was 28.7 degrees, which is 0.6 degrees above normal. A total of 5.73 inches of precipitation was recorded during this past winter, which is 0.34 inches below normal. There was a total of 28.6 inches of snow recorded at Chicago, which is 1.0 inch below normal. Records established or tied during the winter months: December: * Record daily maximum temperature of 66 degrees on the 15th. * Record daily highest minimum temperature of 50 degrees on the 15th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 66 degrees on the 16th. **6th warmest December on record since 1871 with a mean average temperature of 38.0 degrees. January: None. February: None. At Rockford, the average high temperature for the winter season was 34.9 degrees, which is 2.6 degrees above the 1991 to 2020 average. The average low temperature was 16.3 degrees, which is 1.2 degrees below normal. The mean temperature for the season was 25.6 degrees, which is 0.7 degrees above normal. A total of 4.05 inches of precipitation was recorded during this past winter, which is 1.11 inches below normal. There was a total of 15.7 inches of snow recorded at Rockford, which is 13.1 inches below normal. Records established or tied during the winter months: December: * Record daily maximum temperature of 69 degrees on the 15th. * Record daily highest minimum temperature of 50 degrees on the 15th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 68 degrees on the 16th. * Tied daily maximum temperature of 55 degrees on the 24th. **4th warmest December on record since 1905 with a mean average temperature of 34.9 degrees. January: None. February: None. $$ Kluber

February was -1.4 at ORD.

The HRRR will almost never miss days like this.

With a possible fallback career of playing Jesus Christ

You can literally draw a straight line of snowcover/no snowcover in my backyard based on which area gets sun. Always funny.

Meeting spot almost right imby. Cool stuff.

I don't need to name names, but someone has started going into regional banter threads and bringing those posts to OT for discussion. It's a little weird.