Hoosier

It's snowing.

Do you want to get to 20" at this point? I don't think I would if I were you, unless it's a big memorable storm.

Just to expand on this... recall how long it took for ORD to record its first measurable snow this winter. So there were no early season snows for ORD to get out to an early lead (they'll typically do better than downtown early in the season, and sometimes way better).

I think downtown may indeed have beaten ORD. Just going off of memory though with some of those events that had more near the lake as you alluded to.

Down to 29.12" at ORD.

Hello

One note about the current system. Although it has happened before at this time of year, it is pretty unusual to see this deep of a surface low at these latitudes in late March. For example, barometric pressure at ORD will probably bottom out not too far above 29.00" later.

Bigger threat is outside of region, but... SPC AC 291730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. All severe hazards are possible, including widespread damaging winds, some over 75 mph, and several tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will eject from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Wednesday while acquiring a negative tilt. An 80-100+ kt south-southwesterly mid-level jet will accompany the shortwave trough passage. Low-level southerly flow is also expected to be very strong, with 50-70+ kt winds forecast at 850 mb. The primary surface low should be located over IA at the start of the period, with a cold front extending southward from this low across the central/southern Plains. A secondary surface low in closer proximity to the shortwave trough is forecast to develop from eastern OK to the Mid-South vicinity by Wednesday evening. At least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints are expected to return northward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast ahead of the secondary surface low, with the surface warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with northward extent into the mid MS and OH Valleys. With strong forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreading the warm sector through the day, thunderstorms will develop and move east-northeastward ahead of the cold front while posing a threat for both widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast... A line of convection aided by strong low-level warm advection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from the Ozarks southward across AR to east TX. This activity should continue to pose a threat for at least isolated damaging winds and tornadoes as it moves eastward Wednesday morning. Fairly widespread cloud cover ahead of the line and modest mid-level lapse rates should temper the degree of destabilization to some extent. Still, the increasing low-level moisture in tandem with filtered diurnal heating are expected to aid in sufficient boundary-layer destabilization to support surface-based storms. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should develop ahead of the line across LA into MS and surrounding areas by early Wednesday afternoon. This QLCS should strengthen Wednesday afternoon as it moves across northeastern LA, eastern AR, southeastern MO, and into much of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. Aided by strengthening low/mid-level flow, increasing low-level and deep-layer shear will both become very strong, supporting updraft organization. With a primarily linear storm mode expected, widespread severe/damaging winds appear likely. The presence of a 50-70+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and even stronger flow up to 75 kt at 700 mb, should enhance the prospects for significant severe wind gusts of 75+ mph at the surface within the most intense portions of the line Wednesday afternoon and evening. Very favorable low-level shear and elongated/sickle-shaped hodographs in the boundary layer will likely also support low-level rotation with embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS. Several tornadoes should occur across the lower MS Valley and Southeast in this regime, with circulations moving quickly east-northeastward. The potential for supercells to develop ahead of the line, or perhaps embedded within the line with southward extent, remains unclear. Any cells that can form ahead of the line would be favored to produce tornadoes, but the quick eastward progression of the QCLS may limit this possibility. Still, some guidance suggests the southern part of the line may become more broken with time Wednesday afternoon/evening. If this occurs, then a threat for embedded supercells capable of producing multiple strong (EF2+) tornadoes would exist. At this point, the greatest tornado potential may focus along southern portions of the line in MS/AL where a semi-discrete mode seems more plausible. Regardless, a continued threat for both damaging winds and tornadoes will likely persist Wednesday evening and overnight as convection spreads from the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Deep South. Thunderstorms should eventually weaken with eastward extent early Thursday morning as they outpace the low-level moisture return and encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... Less low-level moisture and weaker instability are forecast across the mid MS Valley and OH Valley compared to locations farther south. However, enough boundary-layer instability should be present for the line of storms to produce scattered to perhaps numerous damaging winds as it moves eastward given the strength of the low-level flow. A few tornadoes may also occur with favorable low-level shear also present. The lack of stronger instability precludes greater severe probabilities across this region at this time. ..Gleason.. 03/29/2022

I'd actually say that it's not that difficult to get a QLCS tornado "outbreak" these days, especially with the advances in radar technology that really allow these tornadic debris areas to be picked out. The numbers can add up quickly sometimes. I put "outbreak" in quotes because the term is a bit subjective of course.

I actually got a slight burn earlier this month lol. I'm pretty fair skinned but can tan reasonably well... thankfully have some central/eastern European ancestry to go along with northern European.

Not super easy to pull off highs in the low 30s on March 27 with basically full sunshine, but we're doing it.

Where/when did southern states get 2+ feet (and was it outside of mountainous terrain)?

Hindsight, but some severe probs for wind would've been justified today.

Good stuff. Could hear the wind building in the distance for about 60-90 seconds before it hit.

just was

Sun has popped back out here. Let's maximize those low level lapse rates.

Had some graupel. That upstream severe warned stuff looks on track to move in here.

Let's do it Mesoscale Discussion 0337 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Iowa through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251918Z - 252145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the region through late afternoon, some accompanied by a mix of frozen precipitation, strong wind gusts approaching severe limits, and occasional sharply reduced visibilities. DISCUSSION...An intensifying cyclonic, northwesterly jet streak is in the process of digging across and southeast of the Upper Midwest. This includes speeds within its core increasing in excess of 90 kt around 500 mb and 50 kt around 850 mb. Within the exit region of this jet streak, strong lower/mid tropospheric cooling is ongoing (including temps of -16 to -32C in the 700-500 mb layer), contributing to pronounced steepening of low-level lapse rates. This is currently becoming most prominent across parts of northeastern Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin into northern Illinois, aided by insolation, where deepening convective development is underway. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that the destabilizing thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection reaching 15-20 thousand plus foot depths, and perhaps becoming capable of occasionally producing lightning. Given the cold nature of these profiles, including rather low freezing levels within a couple thousand feet above ground level, the well-mixed sub-cloud boundary layer probably will allow for a transition from rain to melting frozen precipitation ranging from graupel to snow in the stronger showers/downdrafts. This may also enhance the downward mixing of potentially damaging wind gusts to the surface, as activity develops southeastward through 22-00Z. ..Kerr.. 03/25/2022

I took a peek at that system. Regardless of the progged paltry instability, I would expect at least a modest/lower end severe threat to materialize in the sub given such a dynamic system w/robust forcing. And obviously even a little bit of instability could ratchet up the threat given the other favorable factors.

Later on could get a little interesting from a squally perspective. SPC even has a general thunder area.

Way out there but oh lord, the 18z GFS has an unwelcome visitor around April 5. Regardless of whether or not that happens, this isn't exactly a nice springtime pattern, as has already been alluded to. But I suppose you usually don't get a perfectly clean transition out of winter anyway.

What about December 15, 2021?

My mother drove to New Orleans to visit a friend and left New Orleans yesterday to stay in Tennessee for a couple days before heading home. I had been monitoring the wx situation and told her to leave as early as possible yesterday morning to try to avoid driving in any questionable wx. Other than encountering heavy rain, things went ok as she stayed out ahead of the severe storms that were moving through MS yesterday morning/afternoon. Sometimes it pays to pay attention. Pretty remarkable what happened around NO though, as they experienced one of the strongest tornadoes to ever hit that immediate area.

Yes, December led the way. So crazy.

I did IL, IN, KY, MI, OH, WI... but if anyone wants to add data from fringe states like IA or MO, feel free. There were 221 tornadoes. This includes 1 tornado that crossed from Illinois into Indiana, which is counted as a tornado for each state but is only counted once in the cumulative 6 state monthly/intensity totals at the bottom. On a very local note, there were tornadoes on 3 different calendar dates in my county this year. The only other time that has been recorded was in 1976. I actually think that is more impressive than having 3 tornadoes in a county on the same day, because a cyclic supercell or a QLCS with embedded areas of rotation can produce a few tornadoes pretty quickly. There are a relatively limited number of days that are favorable for tornadoes in a given place in a given year, so to pull it off on 3 separate days with varying conditions/parameters is noteworthy. Illinois Mar: 3 ; 1 EFU, 1 EF0, 1 EF1 Apr: 1 ; 1 EFU May: 12 ; 9 EFU, 3 EF0 Jun: 15 ; 5 EFU, 7 EF0, 2 EF1, 1 EF3 Jul: 8 ; 1 EFU, 4 EF0, 3 EF1 Aug: 16 ; 7 EFU, 4 EF0, 5 EF1 Oct: 10 ; 5 EFU, 4 EF0, 1 EF2 Dec: 8 ; 2 EF1, 5 EF2, 1 EF3 Total: 73 ; 29 EFU, 23 EF0, 13 EF1, 6 EF2, 2 EF3 Indiana Jun: 12 ; 5 EF0, 6 EF1, 1 EF2 Jul: 2 ; 2 EF1 Oct: 5 ; 1 EFU, 3 EF0, 1 EF1 Dec: 1 ; 1 EF0 Total: 20 ; 1 EFU, 9 EF0, 9 EF1, 1 EF2 Kentucky Feb: 1 ; 1 EF1 Mar: 3 ; 2 EF0, 1 EF1 May: 6 ; 1 EF0, 4 EF1, 1 EF2 Jun: 2 ; 1 EF0, 1 EF1 Dec: 27 ; 3 EF0, 15 EF1, 4 EF2, 4 EF3, 1 EF4 Total: 39 ; 7 EF0, 22 EF1, 5 EF2, 4 EF3, 1 EF4 Michigan Apr: 1 ; 1 EF0 Jun: 9 ; 5 EF0, 3 EF1, 1 EF2 Jul: 4 ; 1 EF0, 3 EF1 Aug: 1 ; 1 EF0 Sep: 1 ; 1 EF1 Oct: 2 ; 2 EF0 Total: 18 ; 10 EF0, 7 EF1, 1 EF2 Ohio Jun: 2 ; 1 EF1, 1 EF2 Jul: 6 ; 2 EF0, 2 EF1, 2 EF2 Aug: 3 ; 2 EFU, 1 EF1 Oct: 19 ; 9 EF0, 9 EF1, 1 EF2 Dec: 1 ; 1 EF1 Total: 31 ; 2 EFU, 11 EF0, 14 EF1, 4 EF2 Wisconsin Jun: 2 ; 2 EF0 Jul: 17 ; 8 EF0, 9 EF1 Aug: 11 ; 5 EF0, 5 EF1, 1 EF3 Sep: 1 ; 1 EF1 Dec: 10 ; 3 EF0, 3 EF1, 4 EF2 Total: 41 ; 18 EF0, 18 EF1, 4 EF2, 1 EF3 6 state total by month: Feb: 1 Mar: 6 Apr: 2 May: 18 Jun: 42 Jul: 37 Aug: 31 Sep: 2 Oct: 35 Dec: 47 6 state total by intensity: EFU: 32 EF0: 77 EF1: 83 EF2: 21 EF3: 7 EF4: 1