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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Interesting situation at Northerly Island. Wind has shifted more southerly and they have shot up to 86 degrees.
  2. HRRR and RAP have you hitting 95 tomorrow. This is some impressive stuff for this time of year. It's one thing to get dry heat at this time of year, but this is not that.
  3. First 90+ at Midway today. Looks like ORD will come up short with either 88 or 89.
  4. This may be of interest to Oceanstwx, who used to forecast in the Midwest. It's 92/73 at MLI for a heat index of 100. Summer has invaded the central US.
  5. Heat index has hit 100 at MLI. Even though strict heat advisory criteria is not being met, certainly could make an argument for some heat advisories given that it's the first real heat and it's coming off winter and a cool spring. I guess nobody wanted to bend the rules that much, even though we see it with other things like winter headlines.
  6. Hasn't it always been kind of a late arrival for southern WI? Like, I wasn't expecting anything there until near or after sunset.
  7. Was outside a while ago. Really feels summer-like. Hard to believe it was in the 40s at this time on Friday.
  8. Talk about a wide range in sensible wx outcomes in Chicago metro tomorrow.
  9. It appears that the hotter RGEM is verifying the best with temps around Chicago. This is not to give credence to how it's doing regionally. It's too hot in general.
  10. HRRR has more of a southerly flow tomorrow, which would suggest virtually no lake cooling from the city south. Exact wind direction will be important. What does your point forecast have?
  11. The temperature performance thus far today suggests to me that ORD has a pretty good shot at 90 tomorrow. I'd certainly expect 90s at MDW tomorrow.
  12. 12z HRRR was pretty bullish on the southward penetration of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday.
  13. fwiw, if ORD can manage to hit 90 during the upcoming stretch, it would be the earliest one since 2011. We'll see what happens.
  14. RGEM still looks crazy on the newest run. I dug into it a little bit and it appears that the main reason why is due to deeper mixing.
  15. Not that I'm basing this on anything whatsoever, but I was actually thinking about how weird it would be if the upcoming temps are the hottest that we have until like August or September.
  16. Wonder how long it will take for the NAM to get a clue on high temps this upcoming week.
  17. GFS actually tries to get us in the mid 90s later in the week courtesy of some enhanced mixing. That would be muy impressive.
  18. I continue to wonder if some of the dewpoint progs are overdone. Raw guidance tries to send dews into the mid to even upper 70s in some areas. It would be exceptional to pull that off at this time of year, and not like there is much of an assist from evapotranspiration. Getting dews around 70 or in the low 70s is one thing. It doesn't sound like much of a difference from mid-upper 70s, but it is at this time of year.
  19. Here's something that may come into play... Getting a 5+ day streak of 80+ temps in Chicago in May is not that unusual, but many of them tend to happen later in the month. The last time there was a 5+ day streak of 80+ on May 15 or earlier wasn't even in May, or April for that matter. The last time was in the infamous March 2012. Maybe we can call this period Mayorch.
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