Hoosier

What a snoozer of a month for severe wx around here. June can be good in the LOT cwa. Hopefully this one has some action.

Yup. I just didn't bother to mention that. Question is why Flagstaff comes up as the default. After all, APX is first alphabetically.

SPC has an archive of that stuff, but strangely, 5/20 is not listed on the main archive page (5/21 is listed, lol). However, I was able to pull up 5/20 by manually changing the date in the link: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20220520 You can get the 19z APX sounding here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/22052019_OBS/

Here's a wider radar loop from yesterday

Gaylord tornado has been rated EF-3 (so far)

Agree with this. SPC had a 5% tornado area from the first outlook of the day and was mentioning tornadoes in their discussions. If that tornado stays in the woods it's basically an afterthought. Bad luck that it went through Gaylord.

The post in the severe thread about the Gaylord tornado being the first deadly tornado in MI in 13+ years got me thinking about my state, so I did some research. It has been 10 years since the last killer tornado in Indiana, which is the longest gap since modern records began. Since 1950, the years with killer tornadoes are 1953, 1954, 1956, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1971, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1986, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2012. Some of it is probably due to better/more timely warnings but some of it comes down to luck.

Don't know if I've ever seen such a long narrow slight risk like this from the Mexico border to northern Maine

At least 1 death... first tornado fatality in MI since 2008. There was a hell of an EML traversing through the Lakes today (700-500 mb lapse rates of 9 C/km). Obviously they were able to break the capping up there.

Also appears to be the most injuries from a tornado in MI since the 7/2/1997 tornado that tracked into Hamtramck.

The special 19z sounding from APX was fairly veered in the low levels, but it possessed excellent speed shear. And despite lacking better directional shear, the overall CAPE/shear combo was potentially supportive of a significant tornado, which it appears we may have had.

Actually could've used a hatched hail in the OV yesterday. Quite a few 2"+ reports

Quite breezy out there. Actually kind of impressive how windy it is given the extensive cloudiness.

This would be a little unpleasant, west of Lake Michigan

5% tornado area on new day 1 outlook. And despite no hatching, definitely agree with what was mentioned in this thread about some very large/sig hail potential.

They get some wild swings there, but that is probably a little impressive even by their standards.

Long way out but signs of heat rebuilding toward the end of the month.

While no one was looking, there are dual enhanced risks poking into the sub today.

Even with some cooler/below average days coming up, my guess is that enough of a surplus was built up by the ridiculous anomalies of the past 7-10 days to allow the month to end up warmer than average for most.

LOT not overly optimistic about Friday The forecast guidance diverges significantly Thursday night into Friday with the timing of an approaching cold front and associated convective chances. For the 12z cycle, the GFS and a solid majority of GEFS ensemble members were distinctly faster (~12-18 hours) than the remainder of the available guidance. While we`re at a lead time in which we can`t completely discount the GFS/GEFS solution, it is currently an outlier. A fairly complex interaction with a strong ejecting trough near the Northern Plains/Canadian Prairies border and additional short-wave energy across the High Plains will determine the ultimate evolution of the strong surface low tracking across the Northern Lakes into Friday and the timing of its trailing cold front. For now, while we`re carrying some PoPs, especially north after midnight from GFS/GEFS influence in the NBM blend, the rest of the gridded database leans toward the non-GFS consensus, for a mild/warm and breezy Thursday night. With an extremely impressive EML plume advecting northeastward across the area, that would seem to argue for a dry/capped night barring a much faster frontal timing, though on the other hand with the steep mid-level lapse rate plume, can`t completely rule out convection, so have some slight chance thunder mention. On Friday, the pieces *could* come together for a severe threat in the region, but confidence is fairly low due to the exceptionally hot/dry/strong EML expected to be in place. In the currently preferred frontal timing of the mid-late afternoon into the evening, the stronger large scale forcing is off to the northwest, with neutral to even slight mid-level height rises. The aforementioned hot/dry EML advecting overhead atop low to mid 60s dewpoints in the boundary layer looks to result in formidable capping that appears pretty unbreakable through the early afternoon hours even as a cold front begins to make inroads across northwest Illinois. For this reason, thunder chances were capped at slight chance until the late afternoon. The big question in this set-up (again assuming the much faster GFS-like scenario doesn`t verify), is if capping can be broken in the frontal zone warm sector. With the aforementioned height rises, any lifting and cooling of the capping inversion would be unlikely to occur until the late day if not early evening. And that`s an if, as there does appear to be potential for most convection to be elevated and post-frontal (anafrontal), which itself would still pose some hail and wind threat due to the very steep lapse rates, effective bulk shear up to 35-40 kt, and low-level storm relative flow around 30 kt. We`ll need to watch for any trend toward convectively induced impulses that could work to break the cap earlier in the warm sector, and up the ante for a surface based severe threat. The above being said, while a severe weather threat certainly exists later Friday afternoon and evening, with shear forecast to trend to mainly boundary-parallel by the evening, and north/northwesterly storm-relative winds suggesting the cold front will have a tendency to undercut incipient updrafts, the primary risk may actually be heavy rainfall as convective cores re-develop and train. Broad ascent will only increase through the evening as the main trough swoops in overhead, and this may keep shower and diminishing thunderstorm chances going through the overnight and increasingly likely through the day on Saturday before moisture is finally scoured out Saturday night. The cooler air mass north of the front along with waves of rain/showers could make for a rather inclement day (especially coming off the recent mainly warm stretch) on Saturday, with highs only in the mid 50s- lower 60s.

Pulled up this forecast sounding for my area for Friday. This EML would do the Plains proud

A warm 7 days

I guess. I don't think either will be a huge problem though.

LOT is significantly underplaying temps for late this week imo. Given the mild start and progged temps aloft, I see little reason why Friday won't reach the upper 80s at least. And no lake cooling will be had this time given relatively strong southwest flow, so brace yourself Alek.

Great spring wx today. Not too warm and very low humidity.