Hoosier

Tornado has been reported. Actually had PDS wording in the text.

DVN confirmed an EF-1 near Freeport.

There is 1 tornado report now on the SPC page. I think it may be from the cell that you mentioned.

Nice blow of the sub-severe kind.

Southern sky is really dark now. Sun is still out so it's making it look very dark over there.

Said storm is gonna hit here in a bit. Southern sky is getting dark.

73 mph gust in Newton county IN.

Multiple funnel cloud reports west of Chicago. Haven't seen any tornadoes reported though.

You don't see "showers capable of producing tornadoes" in the warning text every day.

Seeing a gradual increase in convective development.

Mentioned this yesterday, but could see a lower threat near the IL shore (and by extension, WI) as winds cut in off the lake. I would expect this to mainly be an issue from Lake county IL and northward, but it's possible that it could also be a factor right along the shoreline in Cook county (especially the farther north you go in Cook). Will just depend on how quickly/when the winds turn more southerly and lose most or all of that easterly component.

Sky brightening, trying to get filtered sun here.

The updated AFD from LOT mentioned that mid-level flow is slightly stronger than progged.

Dews are in the mid-upper 60s south of the warm front, so low level moisture isn't a problem. Also, temps are already in the 70s south of the front across much of IL/IN.

It seems like one of those days where a bunch of stuff will be spinning, but question is how much will actually produce. Still looks to me like there could be a corridor of somewhat elevated potential embedded in that large 2% tornado area.

Got ya By mid-afternoon, forecast hodographs depict some 25-30 kt of 0-1 km storm-relative flow to sustained and uninterrupted updrafts. However, mid- to upper-level flow will be modest to weak at best, suggesting precipitation will falling close proximity to what will likely be spatially small updrafts. Taken together, any shower or thunderstorm where the downdraft is just far enough removed from the updraft will have the potential to support transient low-level mesocyclone with an associated threat for a brief, likely weak (EF-10 to EF-1 caliber), tornado. Such a threat appears maximized from about 2 to 8 PM. It`s worth noting this system does not have the hallmarks of a surprise high- shear/low- cape (HSLC) severe weather event but rather a "got ya" type event given the moist and sheared low-level environment. For a more substantial threat, we`d expect a regime in which a surface low would be rapidly deepening while on a closer approach providing a much deeper layer of shear as well as the means to locally augment low-level instability via dynamically lifting a moist-absolute unstable layer. We don`t look to have any of that tomorrow. In addition, the threat for damaging hail and winds looks exceedingly low (<5%) due to the expected shallow depth of convective cores as well as lack of storm-scale organization to develop a cold pool in an otherwise moist and unfavorable environment. So, it`s one of those rare "weak tornado or nothing" environments, notwithstanding the dangers of lightning.

I thought those numbers looked cool when I first saw it, but then I realized that it is the anomaly map.

Although it's not reflected in the SPC outlook, would point out that there will probably be a local minimum of severe threat near the IL shore as the flow cuts in off the lake to some extent.

Yes. I edited my post to put the word eastward in there, but you replied just before.

Expanded areal coverage eastward on the 1730z outlook, though held at marginal risk.

That was an inferno airmass aloft on the 00z Euro for part of next week. Didn't really translate to the surface though so must have a low based inversion or something, because those 850s with mixing to that level would normally easily yield 100+ temps.

Suspect we'll see higher probs on subsequent outlooks. Yeah, the mid level winds could be better, but they look sufficient enough and the low level shear is certainly good enough for some tornado concern.

Took a look at Wednesday, and it seems like it has some potential to be semi-interesting. Maybe even a bit of tornado potential. I wouldn't sleep on it.

Pretty respectable I actually remember having frost around this time in May (might have even been a freeze). I want to say it was 2002.