Hoosier

1/15 huh? That's a little long. I'm basically assuming that December will be a hostile winter pattern again though. I don't care what anybody is predicting or what analogs may say. There have been too many bad Decembers lately so I'll believe a good one when I see it.

As we are 10 years removed from the infamous warmth and drought of 2012, I was looking back at some stuff. It's amazing how fast this drought developed and spread and is a classic example of flash drought.

Let's see what the anomalies are after the first 10 days or so. There are signals for a flip to hot toward mid-month. Not saying there will be a repeat, but May flipped really hard after the first 8 days or so and most of the sub ended up like 2-4 degrees warmer than average.

I found the ridging

In an odd coincidence, ORD and RFD were both +3.1 in temps. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 1 2022 /119 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022/ ...A Look Back at the Climate for the Month of May 2022 for Chicago and Rockford... At Chicago, the average high temperature was 72.2 degrees, which is 1.7 degrees above normal. The average low temperature was 55.2 degrees, which is 4.6 degrees above normal. The average temperature for the month was 63.7 degrees, which is 3.1 degrees above normal. During the month of May, 3.47 inches of precipitation were recorded, which is 1.02 inches below normal. Six daily records were set or tied for Chicago during the month of May 2022: * Tied daily warmest minimum temperature of 69 degrees on the 10th. * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 74 degrees on the 11th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 90 degrees on the 11th. * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 74 degrees on the 12th. * Tied daily maximum temperature of 89 degrees on the 13th. * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 74 degrees on the 31st. At Rockford, the average high temperature was 73.9 degrees, which is 2.7 degrees above normal. The average low temperature was 53.2 degrees, which is 3.7 degrees above normal. The average temperature for the month was 63.5 degrees, which is 3.1 degrees above normal. During the month of May, 2.54 inches of precipitation were recorded, which is 1.64 inches below normal. Eight daily records were set or tied for Rockford during the month of May 2022: * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 68 degrees on the 10th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 92 degrees on the 10th. * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 72 degrees on the 11th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees on the 11th. * Record daily warmest minimum temperature of 74 degrees on the 12th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 93 degrees on the 12th. * Tied daily warmest minimum temperature of 63 degrees on the 13th. * Record daily maximum temperature of 92 degrees on the 13th. $$ Yack

Latest drought outlook still has it expanding toward your area this summer. Though as with any seasonal outlook, there's uncertainty. Updated Seasonal Assessment - In the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Plains, improving drought conditions depicted in the June 2022 monthly drought outlook (MDO) are likely to be short-lived, as long-term guidance favors a return of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for all areas forecast to experience improvements. Additionally, drought development remains favored for parts of the central Corn Belt as La Niña, which typically leads to warmer and drier conditions across the central CONUS during the June-July-August (JJA) season, is expected to continue through the end of August. Drought development also remains likely in parts of eastern Texas, where antecedent soil moisture continues to be well below-normal and long-range outlooks favor above-normal temperatures and weak precipitation signals. In the Pacific Northwest, given the recent improvements during May, coupled with above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures favored throughout much of June, no additional drought development is favored beyond June.

ORD is going to break the record high min for the 31st. That is the 6th record temperature of the month -- 2 record highs and 4 record high minimums. Pretty impressive.

That is pretty much the only game in town severe-wise rn.

Yeah, it would have to be obnoxiously below avg to really suck.

To me it doesn't look like a good pattern for appreciable severe chances though. I'd love to be wrong about that but I fear we may be waiting until mid-month for more robust severe prospects.

We seem to be on the way toward having a rather pathetic convective display tonight... somewhat limited coverage and intensity.

Sig change from the May 19 outlook, which had much more of the country in above.

You will never get the spring you want in Canada if you can't handle temps around 70F. Most would probably say that is tolerable for outdoor activities other than swimming.

Although not an apples to apples comparison as one is probabilistic and one is not, the flavor of this is quite different than the CPC outlook from May 19. Be interesting to see if they change.

CFS has actually trended on the cool side in the last couple runs, especially in the center of the country.

Noticed something interesting in ORD's numbers for this month. 16 days will be below average and 15 will be above average, but despite that, the month will finish +3.x, so significantly in positive territory. When the warmth came, it really came.

May have a shot at a record high min in Chicago for May 31. Record is 72. It definitely won't drop below that overnight, so the question is whether it can hold all the way through tomorrow.

Tonight was spectacular to be outside. Comfortable temps, nice breeze and the smell of bbq in the air. Good stuff.

My niece graduated kindergarten and the school had a ceremony for the kids. It was cute.

Alek talking a wet extended while CPC favoring drier. Something's gotta give.

On a serious note though, heading deeper into convective season when rains are less likely to be homogenous so will probably be haves and relative have nots, as usual.

I will be more diplomatic with the criticism than some of what gets thrown around in my sub, but let's say that SPC can be a bit slow to react sometimes. While they are the foremost experts on this stuff, I would definitely put weight on the outside collective thoughts/opinions from knowledgeable folks.

I thought it seemed a little odd to have a large and extremely dangerous tornado on a day like yesterday, but didn't think much of it.

Today is kinda gonna suck. At least upcoming days look top shelf.