Hoosier

90/83 at Decatur at 11 am. Boss airmass

Flirting with a capping problem, but Northern IL

Fairly widespread 80-82 degree dews in central/southern IL now helps the case for building extreme CAPE and trying to overcome capping later as this airmass advects farther north.

Even in a scenario of no storms locally, look likely to be outflowed by activity to the north later today.

Oy vey. Was hoping for more clarity at this point.

New day 1 outlook kept it at slight risk. No guarantees, but I feel that it's highly likely/almost inevitable that we'll get an upgrade when the uncertainty lessens. Setup is certainly capable of an ENH type event, if not more.

I was a little cold when I went out earlier this evening in shorts/t-shirt... temp was in the 50s with a bit of wind. It's almost hard to believe how big of a change is really just hours away.

Suggests that observational trends may matter even more than usual.

There were some 80-81 degree dews in Missouri/Illinois earlier, so the modeled dews of near 80 pooling along the front tomorrow seem doable, helping to aid the jacked up CAPE.

Negative. Just a random click.

Parameters on 3 km NAM are pretty wild in northern IL/IN tomorrow. This is almost like some severe wx nerd sitting in the basement and drawing soundings. Not even the most extreme forecast sounding that I found.

Excellent info OHweather.

There's too many scenarios as far as timing/location. I think we'll have a better idea of how this may go in another 8-12 hrs or so.

Miami average high for Jun 12: 89 Miami record high for Jun 12: 95 lol. Obviously this is an extreme example as they are in the southern US and near the water, but still.

One thing I have noticed with places in the south... if they are 10-15 degrees above average, there's a good chance it's going to be a daily record or at least darn close. They have much less of a distribution of temps compared to areas farther north.

At least at IND, the highest temp from 2013 to now is 96 (and that reading was in 2013)

Yeah I agree. I don't think that would really impact the airmass recovery for Tuesday, but it would be more of a soil moisture problem at that point. That is certainly the pattern with past 100 degree days in the area. A tenth or three of rain wouldn't be a big deal going into Tuesday, but a large amount of rain would take away from the max heating potential. I kinda hope MDW doesn't hit 100, because if ORD doesn't, then it's almost like it didn't happen.

They did cut out the southern end of the 15% area, most notably across IN/OH. Hatching zone also greatly reduced.

It's finally out.

Wasted the last 15 mins or so refreshing for the outlook.

Midway will have a shot to touch 100 IF there are widespread upper 90s in other areas of Chi metro.

There ya go.

Will be curious to see the new day 2 outlook. Could make a case for trimming the southern end but not sure they will. You want to have some buffer and we've all seen plenty of times where things end up south of where you'd think based on models. In this case we are dealing with an infernal airmass aloft coming in and I'm not sure how far south any convection can end up, but we'll see.

Best of luck for your afternoon barbecue. Does look like it will stop raining by then.

There's a hatched 15% wind area on the day 2 outlook, owing to the uncertainty/varying scenarios but with higher end potential. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Monday across parts of the northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Some of the winds could be significantly severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley Monday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough initially over the western CONUS will move slowly eastward across the Intermountain West on Monday, eventually reaching the northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains by late Monday night. An upper-level ridge should persist over much of the MS Valley into the Southeast, with another upper low forecast to remain over Quebec. Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow should be present over parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Mid-Atlantic on the northeast side of the upper ridge. At the surface, a lee cyclone should consolidate over the northern and central High Plains by Monday evening, with another low over southern Saskatchewan. Rich low-level moisture should return northward across much of the northern Plains along/east of a front extending between the two surface lows. A warm front is also expected to lift northward across parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes and OH Valley through the day, with a very moist low-level airmass present along/south of the warm front. ...Northern Plains... Modest mid-level height falls and ascent preceding an upper trough should overspread parts of the northern Plains by Monday evening. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass to the east of a front should encourage the development of moderate to strong instability by late Monday afternoon across parts of western SD and vicinity. Strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will easily support supercells with any convection that can develop and persist. Most guidance suggests that thunderstorms will initially develop by late Monday afternoon across far northeastern WY/southeastern MT, and quickly strengthen as they spread northeastward across western/central SD and ND Monday evening/night. The rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support a threat for both large hail and severe winds with supercells as the dominant mode initially. Some of the hail could be very large (2+ inches) across parts of western SD and vicinity Monday afternoon/evening, as steep mid-level lapse rates and 2000-3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be present. With time, some upscale growth into a cluster may occur across ND Monday night as a cold front moves eastward. Given the large amount of buoyancy forecast, damaging winds and hail may continue to be a threat even if convection becomes slightly elevated. A few tornadoes may also occur with any supercell, mainly late Monday afternoon and early evening, across parts of western SD into ND as low-level shear increases. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Monday morning across parts of the Midwest (IA/MN and vicinity). This activity could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat as it moves eastward Monday morning. There may be an MCV associated with this morning convection, and some guidance also shows a corresponding mid-level vorticity maximum and enhancement to the mid-level winds. Although details in convective evolution remain unclear Monday afternoon, there is increasing concern that redevelopment of intense thunderstorms could occur with the MCV across parts of southern WI/northern IL into southern Lower MI, IN, and OH. Strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE 3000-5500+ J/kg) will likely develop along/south of a warm front across these areas. Low to mid 70s surface dewpoints, strong diurnal heating, and steep mid-level lapse rates will all contribute to this large reservoir of buoyancy. 35-45+ kt of deep-layer shear should also be present with the enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge. This volatile environment will support significant severe potential with any thunderstorms that can form along/south of the warm front. At this point, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty with where/if thunderstorms redevelop by Monday afternoon. Both global and convection-allowing model guidance show large variability in possible solutions, which range from little to no surface-based convective redevelopment, to an intense, bowing MCS sweeping southeastward in a narrow corridor across parts of the Midwest into the OH Valley through Monday evening. Given these uncertainties, have opted to include greater (15%) severe wind probabilities and add a significant severe wind area where confidence in an MCS occurring is somewhat better. Isolated large hail may occur with any embedded supercell. A few tornadoes also appear possible, as low-level shear will be maximized along and just south of the warm front. If confidence in the MCS scenario occurring increases, then even greater severe probabilities would likely be needed owing to the very favorable thermodynamic environment. The eastern/southern extent of the severe threat is also uncertain, so have expanded the Marginal Risk across the OH Valley into the central Appalachians to account for a broad range of possible tracks to the MCS before it eventually weakens Monday night. ..Gleason.. 06/12/2022