Hoosier

So tempted to go full on Alek with an early call of 100 at ORD next week and ride it to the end, but I just don't have the guts. I think there's a possibility though, with Tuesday being the day to watch.

NBM is numerical blend of models or something like that.

I don't know what the hell shift of tails is, but good stuff.

2 pm ORD 96 MDW 98 I wanted 98 at MDW at 2 pm... so far so good.

I expect to be sitting here ~4:30, refreshing the afternoon climate report to see if MDW reached 100 intrahour. It would be nice to get it on an hourly ob, but I feel it will happen intrahour if it does occur.

Plus by that point, that is another week with little/no rain if things go "right."

MDW is 1 degree behind my preferred pace for reaching 100. Noon temp 94

Just a couple other random obs about yesterday. I noticed a constant gentle thunder for a good 20-30 minutes before it arrived. It seemed like there were practically no breaks to it. Anyone else around Chi metro notice that? The other thing was the sky. It went from gradually getting darker to an absolute death look with some yellowish tint mixed in a couple minutes before the winds it. I can't say that I saw a funnel at any point, but there was some funny looking stuff. I was outside and not constantly checking my phone for radar at that point, but never strayed more than a few feet from the door in case I'd have to run inside fast.

I don't think ORD can keep the pace though. Likely heading for a photo finish at MDW though.

We'll see, but I wonder if early next week starts to bump hotter than it currently appears. It has more of a westerly component in the low level flow than what we are seeing now and in the short term, and in general and without regard to any localized influences, those days with more of a westerly aspect have tended to perform well wrt big heat in previous years.

Because of the county boundaries and storm motion, the tornadic part of that storm traversed probably something like 30-40 miles of Cook county. You really couldn't draw up many other plausible scenarios that would involve that much mileage in Cook. We'll see what any surveys turn up. Based on radar and some stuff that I've read online, wouldn't be surprised if there were some touchdowns along the way.

Tricky day today, especially for us on the western fringes. Storm prospects seemed to be fading, and then I made a post about an innocuous group of cells north of Rockford. We avoided a really bad scenario for Chi metro and I'm not sure by how much. Could've been a nightmare had that supercell decided to put down a tornado with length.

After a respite earlier (relatively speaking), the swamp azz air has advected back in here with temps/dews both near 80.

The 00z ILX RAOB had an 850 mb temp of 27.2C. That is a record for so early in the season.

Wow. I remember they put up a huge number (I think 91 mph?) on 6/29/2012 but this even beats that.

I am deathly afraid that MDW will get 99'd

ORD got some decent rain today, but MDW did not (only 0.04" there). This brings me to tomorrow and my thoughts on hitting 100F in Chicago. ORD is the official observation site of course, but we pay attention to MDW too. 850 mb temps in the mid 20s C and mixing to that level would support 100F temps, but the issue is that progged mixing heights look to be a bit below that level. Based on this being such a marginal setup to begin with, today's rains, and temperature performance at ORD so far this warm season, I do not believe that ORD has a meaningful chance to hit the century mark tomorrow. MDW is a more interesting one. Given the lack of recent rain and it tending to run warmer than ORD, I believe there's a shot of touching 100 there... I'd give it maybe about a 40% chance at this point. Here's some "benchmark" temps that I'd want to see if MDW is to have a good chance of triple digits: 10 am: 89 Noon: 95 2 pm: 98 These are not hard rules, and failure to meet those marks wouldn't necessarily preclude a high of 100, but I think it's a pretty good guideline of target numbers to try to reach.

On a personal note, lucked out on the path that it took. Scarfed down dinner real quick and then stepped right outside my door for the experience. Nice view.

Just got blasted with RFD winds. Hardly any rain.

Obviously there's already tornado potential with it, but current motion is going to put it even closer to the boundary.

Actually, it looks like 84 mph ties the record gust at ORD.

One of the highest gusts ever recorded there (I think 87 mph might be the record but don't quote me)

Maybe somebody can post this but vis satellite loop looks like a nuclear bomb went off in N IL in the past ~45 minutes.