Hoosier

15% hatched tornado and 45% hatched wind on new outlook.

HRRR with the poor man's desert appeal around here tomorrow, as dews mix down into the 40s and temps get into the 90s.

It may not be flirting with 100, but the large scale signals aren't exactly arguing in the direction of cool as we head toward the last week of the month.

Captain obvious here but the earlier it can get in here, the better.

What makes it even more impressive is that it's not being done with cloud assistance. Obs show clear skies. 90 at midnight with clear skies. Wow

Even though it's urban enhanced, it is crazy that you can walk out your door to 90 degrees at midnight in a place north of 40N.

Midnight temp of 90 at MDW.

Thursday could be sort of a mini-example of what I was talking about with overperforming warmth on more of a westerly/wsw flow. Current forecast is 91 at ORD, but it's a drier airmass with pretty good mixing so I could envision it verifying more like 93-94. But in any case, low 90s with less mugginess is going to feel like relief compared to what we are having now, haha.

A few hour delay would be nice.

LOT raised forecast lows to 82 at ORD and 84 at MDW. Whatever the low is tonight, the question will be can it hold through all of Wednesday?

Yeah, just wanted to point out that 100 is not what will go into the books as the official high for Chicago. Nonetheless, it was the hottest day in Chicago since 2012. As you've been mentioning, looks like another round of big heat in the Midwest next week, which will give Chicago another crack at 100 by all indications.

For one example of how higher end max temps have seemingly become harder to come by in recent years, I did some digging. In the era of O'Hare being the official ob site for Chicago (since 1980), today was the 49th time that the max temp has reached 98 degrees or higher. That averages out to just over one per year, but that's very misleading. Prior to today, it had not happened since 2012. But during the 1980s, it happened in 3 consecutive years not once, but twice!

Loop of Chi supercell

Public Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago IL 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 /720 PM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022/ ...NWS Damage Survey Results for 6/13/2022 Severe Event... An NWS damage survey team investigated damage in parts of Cook and DuPage counties that was caused by a severe thunderstorm that moved across the Chicago metro during the late afternoon and evening of Monday, June 13, 2022. It was determined that a brief EF-0 tornado touched down in unincorporated Schaumburg and moved into Roselle before lifting. Additionally, it was determined that strong straight-line winds of 70 mph or greater caused widespread tree damage in Streamwood and across a large swath of west central Cook County, with winds as high as 90-95 mph also causing structural damage in the communities of Bellwood and Westchester. .Schaumburg-Roselle EF-0 Tornado and Straight-Line Winds... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 80 mph Path Length /statute/: 2.2 miles Path Width /maximum/: 25 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: 6/13/2022 Start Time: 6:27 PM CDT Start Location: 2 S Schaumburg Start Lat/Lon: 42.0016/-88.0813 End Date: 6/13/2022 End Time: 6:32 PM CDT End Location: Roselle End Lat/Lon: 41.9747/-88.0606 An NWS damage survey determined that a brief tornado touched down in unincorporated Schaumburg, crossed the Elgin-O`Hare Expressway into Roselle, and lifted just prior to entering Medinah. Damage was sporadic along the tornado`s path and was confined to trees. Just west of the tornado`s track, a wider swath of straight-line wind damage associated with a rear flank downdraft wrapping around the tornadic circulation was observed. These winds were estimated to be as strong as 75 mph and flipped over a small plane at Schaumburg Regional Airport in addition to causing widespread tree damage on the far southern side of Schaumburg through much of Roselle. .Streamwood Straight-Line Winds... Estimated Peak Winds: 70 to 75 MPH Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 An NWS damage survey determined that widespread tree damage across Streamwood was caused by strong straight-line winds of up to 75 mph. These winds were associated with a rear flank downdraft that wrapped around a strong low-level circulation within the parent supercell thunderstorm. .West Central Cook County Straight-Line Winds... Estimated Peak Winds: 90 to 95 MPH Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 2 Between an NWS damage survey and information provided by local emergency management agencies, other government officials, and trained weather spotters, it was determined that structural and tree damage observed across a large portion of west central Cook County was caused by a swath of strong straight-line winds. An 84 mph wind gust was observed at O`Hare Airport, and winds as strong as 95 mph were experienced farther south. Notable structural damage included roofs getting peeled off of apartment complexes in both Bellwood and Westchester, and an office building in Westchester having multiple windows blown out. Two injuries were reported in the Bellwood apartment complex. Widespread tree damage was also noted in the suburbs of Bensenville, Bellwood, Maywood, Westchester, Broadview, La Grange Park, Brookfield, Riverside, Lyons, Stickney, and other nearby areas. && EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph NOTE: The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. The NWS greatly appreciates the help from local spotters, emergency management officials, and fire department officials who greatly aided in the damage surveys for these tornadoes. $$ Baker/Bardou/Doom/Lincoln/Ogorek

Still 99 at Midway at 7 pm. Maybe slightly higher dews would be ideal for this, but I feel like we may see something ridiculous there tonight, like not dropping below 90 until around midnight.

Unofficial site of Midway airport though. ORD missed 100 today.

I have seen soundings from Bangladesh and around that area that almost look like something from another planet.

Yep

There's some missing data, but it appears like this *may* be the earliest 100+ degree day at Midway Airport since the 1930s. It's at least one of the earliest since then.

99 at Champaign

That would be horrifying. Going into today, didn't think ORD had a chance to get to 99, but to miss triple digits by 1 degree would suck.

Not many posters from the biggest threat area, but tomorrow looks nasty in parts of WI.

This tidbit from LOT's event page: This storm had an impressive depth, with a top over 60,000 ft based on data from multiple radars, and may have been over 65,000 ft to near 70,000 ft. Radar beam widths and heights at such a high elevation become very wide, so it's difficult to say a specific height. No matter what, this storm was in the upper echelon of storm tops for mid-latitude, non-tropical thunderstorms.

I had some stats ready to go just in case... The last time that MDW reached 100 when ORD did not was back on 7/25/2012 (101 MDW, 99 ORD). This happened 3 times back in 2011, with MDW having 3 100+ degree days and ORD none.

I'm walking on sunshine. The confirmation from LOT: