Hoosier

I know they hold heat well, but that's extreme.

LOT afternoon afd again mentioned increasing concern about heading toward a flash drought. I don't know the last time that I saw such persistence about flagging that kind of thing at this lead time. That is multiple afds in a row.

Not a cloud in the sky with temps in the 60s and breezy. Gonna flip quite hard in the next couple days.

End of the 18z HRRR would suggest that my numbers are on the right track for Monday.

Speaking of the Canadian, talk about a regional inferno on Tue on the RGEM lol

I could see it being too hot for other areas outside of Chicago. Chicago plays by different rules though with the urbanized environment.

I was gonna wait to get a peek at the 18z HRRR to see where it was going for Monday, but decided not to. I think Monday will perform well with all the sun and dry airmass.

Color me shocked

Here are my numbers for ORD and MDW. May update at some point. What will be a somewhat coolish start on Monday will give way to a hot day with a ton of sun, though dews look to remain comfortable. I'll go 95 at ORD and 98 at MDW for Monday. Tuesday is the big day. A warm start (warmer than modeled) will create a nice launching pad for temps with plenty of sun once again. For me, this day is almost a no-brainer that MDW will exceed 100. The big question is what happens at ORD? I went back and forth on this one. Based on apparent tendencies lately, it lowers confidence in just how hot it will get there. That being said, I'm predicting the first *official* 100 degree day in Chicago since July 2012. My calls: 100 at ORD and 103 at MDW. Would note that I would not be shocked to see MDW even go just over this lofty number, but each degree above 100 is a rarer and rarer thing so I didn't want to get too carried away. Tldr version: Mon: 95 ORD, 98 MDW Tue: 100 ORD, 103 MDW

Monday looks like one of those days when the high could occur slightly later than usual around here due to modest ongoing WAA, until the lowering sun wins out. Would not be surprised if the high holds off until 5 pm or so. Or that it doesn't start dropping from the high temp until around 6 pm.

Maybe some best climo days mixed in for Alek though.

Here's the weekly and month to date precip. Not a problem at this point but you can see how there'd start to be one in some areas if it's another week or two of well below avg rain with the upcoming hot temps.

2012 could be classified as a flash drought... it came on very fast. The thing about droughts in this part of the country is that they don't tend to be multi-year events (an obvious exception being the dust bowl years) and it's probably becoming even harder to get a multi-year one given the overall trend toward increased precip. The deck is stacked against going extremely dry for very long.

Yes I was.

The D word (not derecho) makes an appearance in the afternoon LOT afd. Ensemble model guidance suggests the upper-level ridge will quickly break down into quasi-zonal flow from Wednesday onward as a potent storm-system tracks into the western United States. Such an evolution of the upper-level pattern typically leads to a frontal boundary stalling somewhere in the vicinity, which would then serve as a focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Pinpointing where the front will stall is a somewhat futile effort at this range, so will stick to the inherited forecast and carry low chances (20-30%) for precipitation from Wednesday onward. If the front slips south of our area and we end up largely dry (which is somewhat favored by ensemble guidance), concern for rapid drought development would increase given the recent stretch of above-normal temperatures and for many, below-normal rainfall. Borchardt

I think the CFS is going to bust for June.

Actually have fairly significant disagreement between the GFS and the Euro/GEM in some of the details. The latter 2 models have been in good agreement with advertising 925 mb temps of 30-31C, while the GFS is substantially cooler. If the warmer models verify, then there should be numerous readings around 100 in that zone, with any urban areas that fall within probably going a few degrees over 100. Conversely, the GFS would be a cooler outcome and pretty pedestrian.

Tuesday morning seems ripe for some torch lows with north/west extent in the sub. Stronger pressure gradient with very warm temps off the deck, so even non-urban areas may put up some pretty impressive readings.

Euro really mixes out the dews in the OV and has some crazy high temps as a result. Very likely overdone, but even chopping 10 degrees off those temps would result in highs near 100.

94 ORD 97 MDW Chi Storm can do the rest.

MDW is a little bit more toward the core of Chicago. I haven't been around MDW since last year so I don't know if there is anything going on around there.

99 CMI Speaking of which, hopefully our friend from Champaign is ok. Don't remember seeing him around lately.

Record high for 6/21 for Chicago is 101, set in 1988. Speaking of that year, was looking back on stuff and the daily high temp records from that 1988 summer have largely held up well in the three decades plus since then. Only one has been broken outright (101 on 8/2/1991 broke the high of 100 on 8/2/1988) and 1 other has been tied.

Yeah, the total precip plots over the next 7-10 days are pretty ugly for many. Better hope for some poorly-resolved disturbances.