Hoosier

If the weekend doesn't pan out with good rains, oh boy.

Temp has not moved much yet but sun should start to take over in a while.

With today's official high of 99 for Chicago, I took a look at the horrid history of being 99'd Today was the 48th time that it has happened, and the first time since 2012. The most times that it happened in one year was 4 in 1955. It's just the 6th time that it has occurred in June, with the last June occurrence being in 1987.

Droughts are rarely a multi-year thing in this region of the country. I'm not saying it's preferred over active wx. Just live in the moment and enjoy the ride. As Joe Bastardi says... enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got.

I prefer active wx, but drought can be interesting in its own way when it's bad enough.

I'm almost there, folks. If we don't get a turnaround soon, it's all drought all the time.

Izzi made mention of it last night, but most model 2m temp progs performed terribly in Chi metro. The Euro and HRRR were better, but still some cool bias. Even though temps will cool down, I wonder if this tendency will continue in the coming days.

Thanks

I believe my biggest single error was 2 degrees at MDW for today. Then a 1 degree error at ORD today and 1 degree error at MDW yesterday. All errors were warm biased, meaning I was too warm. Considering I put this out on Saturday, I'll take it. Certainly wish ORD would've made it to 100. Chicago Storm was too cool across the board. So basically, a blend of us would've worked out great lol

One noticeable thing today was the dewpoint pooling ahead of the front. Unlike the past couple days, dews continued to creep up at ORD through the afternoon instead of flatlining/lowering. But MKE/RFD had dews around 70 and both still managed to tag 100. As far as June precip, RFD has been relatively dry this month, but MKE hasn't. Sometimes it's hard to come up with an explanation for why one place hits 99 and another hits 100.

Does anybody have the 5 minute obs link? I seem to have lost it. Want to see how many were 99 at ORD

Shades of July 2011 with MDW/RFD hitting 100 and ORD being 99'd.

Nah, just tied up at an inopportune time for following.

Yeah the change is noticeable in the past couple days. More and more brown making an appearance.

Here's a scary thought. We get 100 at MDW and PWK but not ORD. The horror.

Crunch time

I feel like it comes down to either 99 or 100 at ORD. I don't think it will be something else like 98 or 101.

There's no heat advisory for the city, so this heat really doesn't count.

I had some benchmark hourly temps for when Midway hit 100 on 6/14. Some setups have more warming potential than others though so the numbers don't just automatically transfer over. For this one, I'd really like to see 95 at ORD by 1 pm. 96 at that time would just about lock it in imo.

The deciding factor, for better or worse.

90 at ORD. It warmed 12 degrees after this time yesterday, so can afford to fall off that pace a little, but obviously not much.

Here's a little prayer to mother nature for everybody in and around Chicago. Mother Nature, who art around us Respected be thy name Give us this day our high of 100 And forgive us our whining As we forgive those who whine around us And lead us not to underachieving But deliver us from 99

Meanwhile it's like 20 degrees cooler here. Funny to think that. Gradient is stronger there though which is keeping winds up and slowing down the cooling.

Gino is going for it. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 834 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 834 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022 Going forecast is in good shape with just some minor tweaks to tomorrow`s temperatures and dewpoints. Have generally bumped up temps a couple degrees, which now explicitly has O`hare reaching 100, Midway 102, and Rockford 100. Guidance, in particular the GFS and NAM, have been exhibiting a significant cool bias. For instance, this morning`s 12z GFS forecast high temps for Monday were 6-11F too low across the area with substantially higher dewpoints as well. The recently developing flash drought with substantially evaporation and little rainfall over the past week or so has left top soil quite dry. Guidance is likely overdoing evapotranspiration resulting in a significant 2m Td high bias and 2m temp low bias. The ECMWF has been performing much better with surface temps and dewpoints, but has maintained the small cool bias in temps which it has exhibited for months now. Above the surface, there is good agreement between the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF showing between 2-4C of warming tomorrow afternoon at 925mb, compared with today`s 925mb temps. That degree of warming at 925mb should equate to surface temps Tuesday running 3-5F hotter than today. Given full or nearly full sunshine, should see deep mixing which should also allow dewpoints to mix out in the afternoon, particularly southeastern 2/3rd of the CWA. Farther northwest toward Rockford and Dixon, it is possible dewpoints may hold on a bit better as they start to feel the effects of some moisture pooling ahead of the approaching front. That should result in slightly higher heat indices there, possibly peaking around 105F assuming dewpoints don`t mix out more than anticipated. Elsewhere, dewpoints should mix out sufficiently to result in heat indices near or even a hair lower than ambient air temps. The guidance most aggressive with convection along the front tomorrow happens to be the models with the highest forecast dewpoints. It is certainly possible that enough moisture could pool just ahead of the front to support convection, but confidence is not high and no changes were made to the going forecast pops which are in the lower end of the chance range. Updated forecast has been sent. These updated high temps for tomorrow now put both Chicago and Rockford potentially within reach of the daily record highs. For June 21 the record highs are: Chicago 101 (1988) Rockford 100 (1988) If Rockford or O`hare reach 100F tomorrow, it`d be the first time since 2012 that either Chicago or Rockford reach 100F. - Izzi &&

I didn't realize I was in a battle or war.