Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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Can ya believe that the 4th of July is one week away? We have been talking a bit about how it's looking like more frequent rain chances than what has been observed in recent times. But for a display of how that can go "wrong", take a look at the 6z GFS. More rain chances, but essentially targeting a similar corridor with the better rains.
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Looks like we'll end the month on a hot note on Thursday. There are signals of pretty good mixing as well, so air should feel fairly dry.
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The heavier rain last night just barely missed me to the south. Still, the most rain I've had in a while. 24 hour rain amounts. Note this does not include what fell between Friday morning and Saturday morning for areas farther west.
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Narrow zone of storms has fired west of here. Let's see if it can get in here.
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Upstream radar not looking too dazzling for good rains. Looks like we may be LSRDZ'd (light stratiform rain death zoned). We'll see if it can perk up a bit.
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Hope this stuff lingering into afternoon doesn't screw things up later, as what has fallen so far here is not enough to be more than marginally beneficial anyway. Quite possible it's the last chance of rain until July. I do agree with Chi Storm that we are likely going to enter a regime with more regular precip chances next month, but precise placement of those is anyone's guess.
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Racking em up, especially away from ORD.
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Out of curiosity, I checked today's 12z model 2m temp progs for Rockford for today (away from any lake influence), and they were all underdone by anywhere from 2 to 8 degrees or so. I looked at like a dozen models, from globals to hi-res stuff, and nothing had them getting to 91.
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MDW closer to the lake than ORD and they still tied.
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The next ~3 weeks will be important imo. Some signs of a more active pattern as we get to July. If that does not pan out for some reason or if it's not spread around enough, then I think we're really in dangerous territory come mid-July based on where I feel like the pattern goes then.
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Often the case at this time of year. Best two ways to get more homogenous totals are organized MCS activity or a tropical system.
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Caught this in the writeup for the Drought Monitor. Even an inch of rain per week at this time of year probably isn't enough to keep up, especially when temperatures are hot. One report out of Missouri estimated the total weekly loss of surface moisture to be around 1.75 inches.
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Curious to see what Midway will pull off tomorrow. If clouds hold off long enough and lake cooling doesn't really affect them, could make a case for 95.
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With typical evaporation rates at this time of year, anything under a half inch or so would only be beneficial for a couple days at most. Need more regular rains or if not, then heavier rains when they do occur. After Saturday, next chance isn't for a while.
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Significantly more yellow compared to last week
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Fwiw, I did some digging and yesterday was the first time since 8/16/1988 that MDW/MKE/RFD reached 100 while ORD did not. The highs on 8/16/1988: MDW: 101 MKE: 100 ORD: 98 RFD: 104
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That is big time to already be in double digits at RFD and MDW. For both places, it ranks in the top 10 for 90s by this date (actually 4th place for MDW).
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Wx was too cold today.
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I'd say so. It's only happened 4 times since the 1890s -- 1908, 1959, 1984 and 1988.
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Through June 21, Chicago has had 4 days AOA 95 this year, which is tied for the 3rd most by that day. Not including this year, 8 other years have had at least 3 days AOA 95 by June 21. Out of those 8 years, all of them went on to produce additional 95+ degree days, and in some cases many more.
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Louisville SDF reached 100.
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Midway is up to 90 on a day that was not particularly favorable for such. Torch torchin' away.
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98 in Louisville.
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89 at Midway thus far.
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Wonder if anybody in the OV makes it to 100 today.
