Hoosier

I wouldn't expect it to amount to a lot except maybe somebody who manages to get under a tstorm.

Cool

I would think it should be close enough that we at least get pulses of heat eastward.

Somebody in Chicago must read this subforum Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 556 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 .SHORT TERM... Issued at 159 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Through Tonight... With a 1022mb surface high pressure system centered over Lower Michigan, it`s a tranquil morning with light winds, clear skies, low humidity, and seasonably cool temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the surface high will only slowly drift southward throughout the day, we`re in store for "Chamber of Commerce" weather today with sunny skies, light winds, and highs in the low to mid 80s.

Pretty hot look on the 12z EPS out in the extended, given the long lead time. The best signal for the hottest/most persistent heat is more toward the Plains, which is pretty much climo anyway. The more toward the Lakes you are, the more uncertain things get as far as intensity/duration.

I gotta wonder what kind of temperature departures we are going to see in the nation's midsection this month. It has a chance to be very impressive by summer temp departure standards. Widespread +3 to +7 through the first 8 days of the month with potentially bigger heat to come.

CPC probabilities lean below average rainfall as well.

Seems likely that it's going to get hot in the extended. I think the bigger question is whether it is something that is sort of a run of the mill heat that we get with some frequency, or something more exotic that will be remembered for a long time.

I have to wonder if it is even physically possible to pull off something this extreme nowadays. Yeah, we had it back in the Dust Bowl years... but that was then, IN the Dust Bowl. I guess it could be useful to see how droughty things were in the leadup back in 1954, which was another year that produced this kind of insane heat in the southern/western sub, particularly in the St. Louis area. If we get the kind of exceptionally hot airmass aloft that the GFS is advertising along with the exceptionally deep mixing, then yeah, I guess all bets are off. But both of those conditions would need to be satisfied -- the exceptional 850 mb temps and extremely deep mixing. Getting only one of those would cause things to fall short.

Here's 7 day precip. Basically anything in blue or in the lightest shade of green is not enough as you want to be getting at least 1" per week at a minimum. Some areas did very well, but in other areas it was more like a stop the bleeding thing for the time being.

Another loltastic thing from that run... on the hottest day, it is already 105 at 10 am in Missouri.

Interesting to see this being modeled on the GFS, which is a model that can have an aversion to big heat. Imagine if by some miracle we were able to get this in range on the HRRR. I think it would break the scale, haha

The 6z run didn't seem as impressive in the Lakes/OV, but I flipped through it quickly so maybe I missed something.

My jaw about hit the floor when I saw the 12z run. I have never seen anything like that modeled in my region before. Several degrees cooler, yeah, but not this.

Just beat me to it. Didn't get a chance to see the 12z GFS until now, and holy freakin cow. Even more impressive than the incredibly hot 18z run from yesterday. I actually can't recall ever seeing anything like that modeled in this subforum before, with verbatim highs of 115-120 in parts of the region. 2012 had some pretty crazy model runs, but not quite to that extreme.

Sometimes we see ridges like that but the 850 mb temps are sort of tame or mixing isn't that good. But in this case the 850s are torching with excellent mixing. All fantasy land of course.

The end of that 18z GFS is absolutely nuts. There are areas that are 110+ at 18z on 7/23, which wouldn't even be peak heating.

Good God. Actually spits out 110 in the western sub. Would be right in time for my birthday. I was born during big heat so I think it was destiny for me to like it.

They have gotten dry in more recent times, but they are doing alright over the longer term (6 months)

Yeah I remember. She (or he... who really knows) gave an infamous line that I'm sure some of the old timers will recall. It was about the "angle of the cold" being wrong for the east coast. The early-mid 2000s had some real characters and that was pre-subforums so you tended to know more people from other regions.

Rainstorm was amazingly "skilled" as a troll. Never seemed to deviate from character at all. I've never seen anything like it.

That one looks close. If not a miss south stank, then heaviest probably ends up south.

It is funny how there is that little white area where you are. When I go back and look at 14 day, 30 day, 60 day, 90 day precip, I don't really see a difference between your area and the nearby areas in yellow. Must be some other factors.

Cutoff is Tuesday morning so any rain after that would not have been factored in.

Obviously models have come a long way and now we have more and more of these convection-allowing models that sometimes do a good job, but I wonder if we'll ever get to the point of being able to consistently model convection with a high degree of accuracy.