Hoosier

Dallas got 109'd for the 3rd day in a row. That's fukin brutal. Would be kind of like some of us getting 99'd 3 times in a row. I'd be annoyed.

So file this one under "looking for anything kind of interesting when it's boring." We have the cold frontal passage today and 850 mb flow turns out of the northwest, but that actually advects in some warmer air tomorrow.

Buckle up on Saturday. Maybe.

Wonder when the last time was that MDW only beat ORD by 1 degree on a day with S/SW flow (no lake influence). I'm pretty surprised that MDW didn't top Monday's high. Not sure if there were more clouds or what. The flow on Tuesday was passing over the localized area that really got dumped on south of MDW a couple days ago. Wonder if that could've played a role.

12th time on record that OKC has reached 110, and the first since 2012.

It got to 110 in OKC today for only the 12th time on record and the first since 2012.

This first call might have been nails before I was influenced by Chi Storm to change it. High of 90 at ORD, which should hold. 91 at MDW so we'll see if that's the final number.

12z GFS has 850/925 mb temps around 24C/30C in Chicago metro on Saturday. Multiple "IFs", but if that happens and there isn't a big soaking on Friday, then triple digits would be possible.

Can take issue with the description, but the 12z Euro was hot on Sat/Sun.

The ol' 3 scenario afd from LOT .LONG TERM... Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2022 Wednesday through Monday... Friday onward, ensemble model guidance advertises a pattern shift toward quasi-zonal flow in the Great Lakes atop a flattening ridge over the central United States. Such a pattern typically corresponds to building heat and humidity as well as chances for episodic clusters of thunderstorms. It`s tough to determine exactly where the zone of most frequent thunderstorm clusters may become established at this range which forces lower than average confidence in the forecast from Friday through the weekend. There appear to be three possible forecast scenarios, which are listed below: * 1). We end up in the heat dome and south of the zone of active convection. In this forecast scenario, dangerous heat would become a threat particularly on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s. Such values would support heat index values in the lower 100s and wet-bulb globe-temperatures in the mid to upper 80s (e.g. both high enough to cause heat-related illnesses for those exposed to the heat for prolonged periods of time). An example of this scenario is the 12Z ECMWF. * 2). We find ourselves within the zone of active convection. In this forecast scenario, episodic rounds of thunderstorms would bring frequent downpours and, based on pattern recognition, chances for severe weather. Many hours would still be dry between rounds of thunderstorms. Temperatures would be muted and tied to the timing of thunderstorm clusters and residual debris cloud cover. Conceptually, there should be a southern edge to any thunderstorm activity, so even in this scenario parts of our southern forecast zones may still end up with dangerous heat. An example of this scenario is the 12Z GFS. * 3). We have a little bit of both; heat and humidity followed by thunderstorms in that order. As would be expected with 100+ individual model runs available every 6 hours, successive rounds of ensemble data support this camp. After a steamy Saturday, thunderstorm chances would appear to increase overnight into Sunday as demonstrated by a the "squint test" applied to 6-hour QPF meteograms. An example of this scenario is perhaps the NBM. Since our gridded database can`t show three scenarios at once, we are forced to take a "middle of the road" approach that modestly favors scenario 3. Accordingly, we will advertise highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and nearly continuous but low (20-40%) chances for thunderstorms from Friday onward. Big swings in the forecast (e.g. increasing temperatures and/or chances for thunderstorms, but not necessarily together) are possible as we head through the week. Borchardt

Need frostfern to weigh in.

Redo for tomorrow. 91 ORD, 93 MDW Was tempted to go another degree higher, but I've been burned by going too warm in the past, so yeah...

I may have to. I don't see a clear reason why tomorrow won't be a few degrees warmer than today.

Well, I recalibrated my circuitry so to speak in an effort to address the warm bias that I was having at ORD and MDW. Let's test it out for Tuesday. I'll go 90 at ORD and 92 at MDW. Will this turn out well or will I even be too cool somewhere?! Stay tuned.

Big heat in Europe.

Need to deposit a glacier there to make it more competitive.

About a 35-40 degree swing between the 00z and 12z run in some areas. Probably can toss both runs in all honesty.

Indeed PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1107 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0730 AM HEAVY RAIN EVERGREEN PARK 41.72N 87.71W 07/17/2022 M4.05 INCH COOK IL COCORAHS COCORAHS STATION IL-CK-364 EVERGREEN PARK. MOST RAIN FELL BETWEEN 2:00 AM AND 4:45 AM CDT. 0500 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE OAK LAWN 41.70N 87.73W 07/17/2022 M3.47 INCH COOK IL MESONET PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KILHOMET1. MOST RAIN FELL BETWEEN 2:15 AM AND 4:45 AM CDT. 0500 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W EVERGREEN PARK 41.72N 87.72W 07/17/2022 M3.44 INCH COOK IL MESONET PERSONAL WEATHER STATION KILEVERG9. MOST RAIN FELL BETWEEN 2:00 AM AND 4:45 AM CDT.

After a couple inches of rain at Midway, will be interesting to see if they still outperform ORD with temps in coming days. I'm not gonna bet against it. That place is magical.

Widely varying amounts across Cook county. 1.99" fell at MDW (looks like even more just south of there) and 0.01" at ORD lol

I go Spartman

GFS gone wild again in the extended. Some of it is less than 10 days out, so will be interesting to see how it does.

That place could put up something obscene if the death ridge were more overhead.

Wednesday has some sneaky warm potential locally, especially if the front were to slow down just a little. Pretty warm 850 mb temps overhead at least through midday and possibly a little longer. Although this isn't currently forecast, could actually see it outdoing Tuesday here.

Only a few tenths around here so far.