Hoosier

Here's something a little unusual. Showers/storms in the sw Chicago metro are moving pretty much due west.

Seems like we may have a west/east thing going in the sub as far as which month had more 90 degree days. I checked a few more locations... South Bend: 2 May, 4 July Detroit: 1 May, 5 July Indianapolis: 0 May, 9 July This kind of fits with my recollection of the May heat spell being more impressive toward the western sub, but I wasn't sure.

If you go farther east, ORD had 2 in May and 4 in July. Would be curious to see if areas farther east in the sub tended to have more in May or July.

Are you guys ready for some unreasonably cold and snowy weather this winter? https://mlive.com/news/2022/08/farmers-almanac-predicts-unreasonably-cold-snowy-winter-for-great-lakes-region.html

I think MDW had the 48 mph gust.

It got to 95 at Midway even with clouds increasing and heating completely stopping after ~1 pm. What could've been.

Polypalooza

Des Moines got the dreaded 99 today.

Looks problematic to reach my numbers for tomorrow. When I put it out last week, it was based on the assumption of not having to deal with extensive clouds/precip in the afternoon. I think it'd get close if there were unobstructed heating through 2-3 pm, but that looks very doubtful at this point.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's shocking that that would be forecast that far out.

Oh, something like that could very well happen. September seems like it's becoming more and more an extension of summer.

lol

Some notable differences in model high temps on Wednesday. I'd sell the low end of guidance (hello Euro) as warm temps aloft and a little bit of wind should allow for a pretty high launching pad in the morning... maybe even 80ish in the core of Chicago. I don't really buy the idea of clouds/precip becoming a potential issue until beyond early afternoon at the earliest.

ORD technically squeezed out a cooler than average month, finishing -0.1 Relative to average, I predict that July will end up being the coolest month of met summer for Chicago.

Seems too far south with initiation imo.

Remember a few months ago how we were talking about the CPC maps having above average temp probabilities in the entire lower 48 for JJA and how hard that would be to pull off (usually at least some quadrant of the country will be cooler than average). Well, if August comes in warmer than average around the Lakes/east coast and is not too cool elsewhere, we may damn well pull off the coast to coast warmer than average for met summer.

Nada here

Faster timing has made me a little more interested locally. A couple days ago I didn't think there was a prayer of getting anything down here on Wednesday.

In all honesty, I've seen worse setups.

Don't worry, winter will be rocking.

Would it be too much to ask for a solid severe weather day on Wednesday? (I think I already know)

The convective/fropa timing has sped up to the point where any additional quicker solution would have an impact on high temps around northeast IL on Wednesday. It is already likely to have some effect on highs for areas just to the north/west.

Anybody here the big Mega Millions winner?

Gonna channel my inner Alek and throw out a 5 day call. For Wednesday, I'll go 97 at ORD and 99 at MDW. Multi-model agreement on 850 mb temps around 23-24C with fairly good mixing, the precise details of which will matter. Although I didn't bite yet, I still feel like there's a reasonable shot of triple digits at MDW. What I would want to see to seriously entertain the idea of 100 at O'Hare would be a more solid indication of deep mixing or a trend toward slightly warmer 850 mb temps. It's just not there, at least at this point. As of now, would have to bet on it coming up short, much to my chagrin. On another note, Thursday morning could be very warm barring any interference from convection/outflow from the north.

12z Euro removed the cooler Thursday around Chicago. Will have to see if that's a blip or not.