Hoosier

Not fake it, but it's a little hard to imagine it dropping from 130 mph to 105 mph, especially on that forecast path. The implication is actually for even weaker at landfall as the last forecast point is still a decent distance from the coast.

Agree... the forecast takes it from low end cat 4 to cat 2 at the endpoint. That scenario is within the realm of possibility as others have been discussing why, but there's a real chance of having to raise it upward on subsequent forecasts.

The first potential item of interest to open the month will be whether the remnants of Ian make it into the sub. The latest GFS and Euro do have it moving into the OV, and the associated clouds/precip have temps struggling to get out of the 50s on the models. Obviously subject to change. Beyond that, there are indications of at least some decent warm spells.

Barring a dramatic center relocation farther north/east, we are probably getting close to ruling out a far sw FL landfall.

Don't want to get too far ahead, but maybe Charley-esque impacts in interior FL assuming it doesn't pull a rot away in the Gulf scenario. Even if weaker than Charley at landfall, it looks to be a larger storm which would help offset.

So far the 00z Euro looks a little slower/possibly west.

This thing is gonna totally be an alpha male "I" storm. Ivan, Ike, etc. It's destiny.

I bet a girl storm wouldn't dump that much rain

Wow, the sesh is still around.

They're probably better than the Florida Blizzard Bureau.

I think they shift somewhat west.

Here's a series of questions to gauge preferences. Thought about just putting this in poll format, but doing it this way encourages more discussion. Do you prefer..... A snowstorm in winter or something out of season? If it's the latter, early or late? Wet snow, dry/fluffy snow, or something in between? Light/calm winds, or windy conditions while it's snowing? Continuous snow, or do lulls not matter as long as amounts end up as expected? 12" in 12 hours, or 18" occurring over 36 hours? Bitter temperatures, or just cold enough to stick well during the storm? Storms on holidays/your birthday/some other meaningful day, or are dates irrelevant? If living in a lake effect area, would you rather have a synoptic or lake effect storm of the same amount?

A split between the GFS and Euro would be bad news for the Tampa area.

Here's another view of it on the 500 mb maps. This isn't just a little influence... it's a robust interaction/phasing between the trough and Fiona.

I feel like these Tampa posts are just taunting mother nature.

So the back-to-back highs of 100+ in Paducah is the first time that has happened there in September since 1954. With it being their latest 100+ degree reading on record, it's also obviously the latest back-to-back occurrence on record.

Wouldn't bet on it missing the US, but could envision some meltdowns if that occurs.

Going to be really interesting to see what the landfall pressure is (even if it's just an estimate). 930s would be impressive, let alone these runs in the 920s or 910s.

I'm pretty sure at least 90% of the board wants a big hit on the Tampa area.

Sonething west of the 12z op Euro and east of the 12z op GFS seems like the reasonable play at this point. Since there has been so much discussion about the incoming trough, I think it was DT who had an old school rule that a hurricane will begin to feel the effects of a trough when the base of the trough gets within 10 degrees latitude of the system. Can anyone back this up?

ORD running +3.8 for the month. Will cut into that over the coming days... not enough to reverse though.

Temps look to tank pretty good tonight. Probably 30s in the usual colder spots and more widespread in MI, IN.

We need a larger wind field.

Midway almost pulled off 90 today. That would've been a pretty amazing feat to accomplish post-fropa on Sep 21.