Hoosier

Serious question since you're from there. Let's say the worst surge scenario is avoided in the event of a landfall farther south. What would 2 feet+ of rain do to the Tampa area?

The guy who shut down your NAM posts.

Not blindly following the NAM, but it highlights the water issues that the Tampa area could still have even in a landfall well south scenario. There is a lot of qpf near and left of track with this.

You are violating the spirit of the thread.

They are both going to hit the west side of Florida. You can't deny the similarities.

Yeah, the intent of the thread was where on the Florida peninsula.

Lake effect precipitation is expected to largely remain to our east through most of the day Tuesday as a northwesterly fetch continues over Lake Michigan. This does look to change, however, as the flow veers more northerly down the lake Tuesday night as a large area of surface high pressure begins to build into the Upper Midwest. This should thus favor the best chance for lake effect precipitation over Lake and Porter counties in northwestern IN for a period Tuesday night. The potential even exists for the flow to veer more north-northeasterly for a period late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which could push any lake effect precipitation into parts of the Cook county. Lake induced thermodyamics on the lake will be quite impressive into Tuesday night, with 850 mb to lake surface delta T`s near 20C and lake induced equilibrium heights up to 26,000 feet. This suggests that not only will lake effect showers be favored, but also possible thunderstorms. Forecast guidance is also suggesting that a land breeze convergence zone will develop over southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which would help focus the development of thunderstorms into the southern and southwestern shores of the lake. This also looks to be a favorable setup for waterspouts on the lake during this period!

Dude has been putting on some miles.

Imma need an exact location.

My special formula currently assigns a 58% chance.

At least they don't get much surge on that run. Lol

With the slowdown/likely angle of approach to the coast, this should be interesting. Bigger bust potential.

Interesting take. If it's going to miss Tampa it seems like the higher probability would be west, but we're at the mercy of the models so what looks more likely one day can become less likely the next.

CFS is at least going warmer than average. Also on the drier side.

The people who deny any possibility of something bad happening in Tampa are pretty annoying too. They have past history/climo to help support them. But climo loses sometimes.

That's why I said the northeast. The northeast is not the southeast. The southeast could be a different ballgame with this setup.

You can feel Storm Mode lurking out there

May I suggest extending your bedtime.

You have a smooth on-camera delivery/presence. Could pass for a TV met with a little wardrobe change.

Going to be interesting to see what numbers that the typically colder places like RPJ and ARR put up.

This just sort of feels like it's going to be quite an issue for the Tampa area. Maybe it won't be "the" one, but "a" one that could be remembered for a while.

We could be setting up for a real perception problem here with the anticipated weakening prior to landfall. I'm not sure how much the general public realizes that the surge is sort of baked in and it takes a lot of time for that to ramp down after winds decrease. One could argue that the surge may not even decrease at all in this case if the storm is expanding as it approaches landfall.

There's already some pretty good bump trolling to be had if Ian cooperates.

Don't look now, but around midweek it looks really chilly for this time of year away from the lake influences. Widespread lows in the 20s/30s possible.

They have it covering almost as much distance between the Wed and Thu forecast points as they do from 2 pm Tue to 2 pm Wed. If it's moving at that speed on this path, the magnitude of weakening that is depicted doesn't make a lot of sense imo.