Hoosier

The recent dryness had me concerned about how the colors would be, but this is encouraging. I'm sure the cool wx has helped.

Top shelf day

Was looking at some stats and this is the driest open to October for Chicago since 2011. A year that many would like to stay away from as a winter analog.

Pretty large diurnal rally today. I'm up about 35 degrees from my low.

Made it down to 32 here, which was a bit cooler than forecast.

I swear it looks like it wants to snow. Big drops.

BAMWX has spoken

Most of the 12z CAMs produce localized amounts near/over .5". Obviously can't have the convergence axis wobbling around too much to be able to reach those amounts, and the models generally do stall it out for a time.

This is actually the most D0 that there has been in the region all year. But because of the time of year, it will not be able to worsen as quickly as it could in summer.

If clouds hang around enough, I think there's a chance we don't get out of the 40s tomorrow afternoon. At least today is nice.

IL shore actually looks more favored now. I think the modeled .5"+ amounts being advertised are realistic. Parameters look nice and it looks like there will be good convergence for a while.

3 km NAM is pretty bullish on the lake effect

You may be right about it being better than a cone, but I think going to something probability based could cause its own issues. Take your basic 30% chance of rain forecast. Most ordinary people couldn't even tell you what that means.

Kinda sucks to be wasting these setups now when it's not cold enough, especially since I'm not in the snowbelt so there's no guarantees how many good setups there will be later on.

Lake effect parameters are looking pretty good around here on Thursday night into Friday... not too dissimilar to the setup from late September. Should have a pretty robust lake response for a while that probably most favors the IL/IN state line area/Lake county IN, but the IL shore also looks to be in play for some activity. Although 850 mb temps are progged to be at least a couple degrees below 0C, that is not cold enough to get snow at this time of year with onshore flow off of a lake that is still well into the 60s. It may be cold/saturated enough at cloud level for snow production, but with freezing levels near 4k feet, you'd have to be at least a couple thousand feet in the air for a chance to see flakes.

The forecast wasn't the greatest, but I just can't feel that bad for people who evacuated to the Ft Myers/Naples area. For heavens sake, go inland. The cone is not some magical boundary that a storm cannot possibly track outside of.

I'm flabbergasted that people would evacuate down the coast for a hurricane. I've heard a lot of stories like that. Whatever happened to going farther inland? It's one thing if you're evacuating to Mobile, AL for this, but the Fort Myers/Naples area were in the zone where there was a reasonable chance of very bad conditions from days out.

I almost never communicate with them so I completely forgot that I know an older couple who lives in Estero, FL, which is between Fort Myers and Naples. They live a couple miles or so from the Gulf and have a little elevation, so they didn't evacuate. All in all they fared well, but I'm sure there are people who died in that town. Just depends where you're at.

This time of day is freakin brutal when driving west bc the sun is so blinding. Getting tired of it.

The Hunga eruption is an interesting wild card, as something like that doesn't happen all the time. Not sure how much of an impact it will have. Oh, and I might scream if this part of the outlook comes to fruition and it means another lackluster December/holiday period: "These atmospheric ingredients will also be present to generate some early-season snow, but this will not be an indicator of how the entire winter will play out, but instead, the start of a bookend winter in terms of snowfall."

Anyone have a current death toll from Ian? The numbers I've been finding seem to be outdated.

Florida man Central Florida man dies after going outside to drain his pool during Ian Deputies said the man was using a hose to drain the pool down a hill and into a 30-foot-wide canal. https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/weather/hurricane/hurricane-ian-tropical-storm-man-dies/77-0dce9684-5c9c-4e44-bd87-4c570763d6dd

I've talked about it before, but it is still one of the craziest wx events I've been through. Not a whopping amount of snow where I was, but the extremely early season nature of it and all the thunder/lightning makes it very memorable. It was a Saturday night and I was going to see a movie but before I left home, I checked the radar and saw the stuff upstream over the lake and thought that maybe it had a chance to be interesting later on. I came out of the theater and it was lightly raining. Then it flipped to wet snow and came down hard. Had to battle marginal temps and ground warmth of course but it still managed to accumulate to some degree. Woke up in the middle of the night to the sound of a large branch crashing down from the weight of the snow. Snow didn't completely melt until late afternoon/evening of the 8th.

This would be an interesting lake setup if it were colder. 850 mb temps are well below 0C but 925 mb to the surface is above freezing... not cold enough for snow. Coincidentally this is progged on the anniversary of the 10/7-10/8/2000 lake effect event, when I did witness heavy, wet snow accompanied by plentiful thunder/lightning.

I think it's a stretch to suggest there are no tropical characteristics remaining whatsoever. If that were the case, I don't think it would weaken over land as quickly as what's being progged.