Hoosier

I've wondered what it would've been like if areas closer to the surface low had been able to destabilize. I remember someone posting a model image the night before that had good CAPE all the way into northern Indiana with a string of supercells running pretty much the entire length of the state.

June 15-17 was a big severe weather event. The 16th/17th were high risk days for much of the subforum except the fringe areas in the north, east, and south.

Here is the NARR from the mornings of June 21 and June 22. Pretty amazing to see 850 mb temps below 0C in the Lakes.

Come on, even you would be whining about 30s in late June.

I was pretty young but I have some vague memories of that summer. Looking back at the dailies, LAF had a low of 35 degrees on June 22, which really sticks out like a sore thumb when you look at records for surrounding dates.

beavis, I found a wind chill of -58F for ORD on 12/24/1983. Temp was -25F with wind of 25 mph

February 1936 might also be worth checking. It was ridiculously cold especially in the northern Plains/upper Midwest.

Thanks for the info. Where did you find it?

There was easily a 40-50 mb pressure gradient with that storm, so it must've been pretty windy. I was working on a blizzard project a while back but gave it up due to the workload...anyway one of the storms I was working on was 1/12/1918. Here is the approximate track and strength at various points. Numbers could be a bit off since I converted from inches to mb but should be pretty close.

Related to this...here is a study about the frequency of various wind chill readings in the northern US. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crh/ssd/pdf/tsp_15.pdf Too bad they didn't do a map for wind chills of -50 or -60.

I don't know where to get hourly data from back then.

Muncie might've been lower that day...winds were stronger but there's no temperature data so I can't say for sure.

Wish we had wind chill info for 1/12/1918. Basically it was a weaker version of the 1978 Cleveland bomb but it brought in bitter cold air behind it. Some of the numbers must've been pretty low.

-53F at IND on 1/20/1985 (temp -22, sustained wind 23 mph) but I've only checked a couple of the notorious cold dates so far.

I think that one had a very limited area of EF4 damage. I want to say only one structure but not sure.

Hard to believe it will be 1 year. I think we knew that it was serious based on the initial reports but I never imagined it would be as bad as it was.

Not that my opinion matters as much as Dr. Forbes' but I agree with that assessment. Tri-State is in a class by itself and then there are some interchangeable ones farther down the list. I think one could actually make a case that Joplin is #2 but it comes down to how heavily one weights the number of fatalities in years past. Given relatively similar damages when adjusted for inflation, are the 255 St Louis deaths of 1896 more impressive than the ~160 Joplin deaths?

Went back and looked at some stuff and came across the 00z SGF sounding. Pretty impressive

Yeah you just beat me to it

I guess you can never fully anticipate an EF5 making a direct hit on a heavily populated area but I think we knew the tornado risk was nonzero even though most of the attention wasn't on that area. I think SPC had a 5% chance there but I'd have to double check that. It was a very bad sign when they were already reporting like 25 deaths right after it happened.

Here's the storm data entry for the tornado: EVENT NARRATIVE: National Weather Service survey teams rated the tornado that tracked across the southwest through east central portion of Joplin, Missouri, as an EF5 tornado. Maximum winds were estimated to have exceeded 200 miles per hour. The tornado had a maximum width of one mile and an overall path length of nearly 21.6 miles, nearly nine miles of which occurred in Jasper County. The tornado killed 159 directly, three indirectly, and injured over 1150 people. Sadly, on May 24 a police officer who was volunteering from another department, was struck by lightning while serving in the response efforts and later died. Over 10,200 people filed for disaster assistance following the tornado. The EF-5 rating (greater than 200 mph wind speeds) was mainly arrived at by the total destruction of vehicles, including some vehicles tossed several blocks and semi trucks thrown a quarter of a mile. Parking stops weighing over 300 pounds and re-barred into asphalt were uprooted and tossed. Other factors in the rating included damage to reinforced concrete structures, and that St. Johnbs Hospital building structure was compromised. Seven thousand homes were severely damaged or destroyed and another 900 damaged. Other substantial buildings damaged or destroyed included the Joplin High School and Technical Center along with five other city schools. Numerous retailers including Home Depot, Sports Academy, Dillons, and Walmart were also destroyed. The most substantial building impacted was St John's hospital which will be razed due to the tornado. It was calculated that 2 million cubic yards of debris is attributable to the storm across its relatively short length on the ground. The tornado initially touched down one half mile southwest of the intersection of JJ Highway and Newton Road in Newton County where several large trees were toppled. The tornado rapidly intensified as it moved toward the intersection of Country Club Drive and 32nd Street where it crossed into Jasper County. Damage became more widespread as the tornado crossed Maiden Lane, breaking nearly all windows on three sides of St. Johns Hospital as well as damage to the roof and exterior walls on several floors. Two patients on oxygen were indirectly suffocated when the generator and a backup generator were damaged after power was cut off. Three additional patients may have succumbed similarly though sufficient data as to the cause of death was not available. An additional indirect fatality occurred due to psychological trauma. The tornado further intensified as it destroyed homes and businesses to the immediate east and north of the hospital. A church school was completely destroyed with the exception of a portion of the sanctuary. Significant damage to the Greenbriar Nursing Home resulted in the death of 20 mostly elderly patients. The tornado continued to destroy hundreds of frame homes between 32nd and 20th Streets, leading to nearly a fifth of the deaths. Three story apartment complexes had the top two floors removed; other two story complexes were partially leveled. Fourteen deaths occurred in apartments along the track. Eleven additional deaths occurred in churches along this path. There were two fatalities in a mobile home (Joplin has a city ordinance prohibiting mobile home parks). Well built structures that were heavily damaged or destroyed along this area included the Joplin High School, Franklin Technical Center and Irving Elementary, all of which were free of students due to the weekend. The tornado also damaged three additional elementary schools. A bank was totally destroyed with the exception of the vault. A large grocery store was also destroyed. The tornado crossed Rangeline Road near 20th Street. Damage included significant to complete damage to several restaurants and large long-span retail buildings; including Home Depot, Sports Academy and Walmart in this area. Twenty deaths occurred indoors or in the parking lots of these structures. Semi trucks on the back side of Walmart were thrown more than a quarter mile. The tornado continued to move eastward along and south of 20th Street destroying numerous warehouse style facilities, a portion of Joplin East Middle School, and residences through Duquesne Road. The tornado continued destroying numerous homes as it began weakening. It turned southeast toward Interstate 44 where it threw several semi trucks as it crossed the interstate and moved into Newton County at 32nd Street just west of Kodiak Road. EPISODE NARRATIVE: A strong upper level trough across the central plains region and a strong upper level disturbance along with a frontal boundary in the area produced numerous severe storms with a few supercells across southeast Kansas. One cyclic supercell associated with the system produced a very large and deadly EF-5 tornado that hit the city of Joplin and then spawned two separate tornadoes that moved across southwestern Missouri. A separate tornadic supercell produced an EF-3 tornado that moved into McDonald County from Northeastern Oklahoma. Continuing thunderstorms lasted into July 23 as another line of thunderstorms moved across the region. This line of storms produced reports of large hail, damaging winds and a weak EF-0 tornado in south central Missouri. As the storms moved over the Joplin area, two police officers were struck by lightning while aiding in the post tornado efforts. One of the two officers later died of injuries from the lightning strike.

Yeah, I bet there are even more examples.

Statistically unlikely of course, but for anyone who thinks it can't happen again in their lifetimes, look no further back than Moore, OK which was struck by violent tornadoes 4 years apart.

I'm no expert on cell phones but I wonder if a mass texting could cause overload issues (especially in highly populated areas) and cause some to not obtain the warning in a timely fashion. Obviously the system can get overloaded with a ton of people making calls at the same time but not sure about texts.

Damn east trend. Quit stealing all the action.