Hoosier

Helps that there's no front around to interact anytime soon (even when Florence gets toward Ohio the front is still back in the western Midwest).

We'll see if the upcoming advisory drops it below hurricane strength, but so far it has held on to cat 1 for like 16 hours. Being in close proximity to the water has undoubtedly helped slow the weakening.

It would be kind of weird if the landfall wind speed ends up being less than the maximum sustained wind that has already been observed (82 mph Cape Lookout), but I guess that can happen in situations like this with a prolonged slowdown near a coast.

From 11 pm discussion Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

NHC corrected their statement about the winds. It's 100 mph.

*This is not a free pass to derail the thread again with talk about other storms.* That being said, Diana in 1984 could be somewhat useful to keep in the back of the mind for what is possible with intensity since it meandered around the same area also in mid September. After weakening from category 4, it was able to maintain category 2 status for a full day before weakening to category 1 at landfall. Of course no two storms are exactly the same and water temps/OHC are just part of the puzzle.

On that note, the updated position statements from NHC over the past couple hours show no gain in latitude, even though they are calling the motion wnw.

It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads.

Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr.

957 mb and 110 mph on new advisory.

That would seem to match up with track trends. This is kind of obvious but the farther north it gets, the more unlikely it would be able to get back over the water on the way to SC.

I wouldn't use the NAM pressure to extrapolate the strength at landfall. Look what it initialized at compared to what it actually is. Something like the HWRF may do better but even then it's tricky.

Besides being somewhat farther north, Florence seems to be running a tad quicker than what the NHC had. Curious to see if the 00z runs will have a quicker progression inland.

You know when the admin said no sh*t posts at the beginning of the thread? This is kinda what he had in mind. Yes, it's weakening, but based on available data there is no reason to think it will weaken all the way down to a tropical storm at landfall. Unless maybe if it did some ridiculous 5 day stall.

Almost unanimous EPS support for a period of southwest movement

Still 140 mph on the new advisory.

Please double check images before posting them to be sure they are current.

While we're waiting

NHC has it at 115 mph at 2 pm Fri, around the time of forecasted landfall.

Multiple pieces of guidance with a west bend at or shortly after landfall. The Euro just takes it to the extreme with the southwest motion.

Back to having ugly rainfall totals again on the 00z Euro because of the stall. Over 40" around ILM.

00z Euro has it stalled at the NC/SC border at 96 hours.

00z GFS is headed for Myrtle Beach moving southwest.

Last 3 runs

00z GFS is west of 12z as well so far, so not just a 1 cycle move.