Hoosier

Some 80 degree readings into western IL, which is even a little warmer than the warm guidance like the HRRR. These early/late season airmasses seem to have a way of overperforming, especially when it's dry.

I personally think there's limited utility with these kinds of outlooks, but they get a lot of mainstream attention. Here's what Ninas in the past 20 years have done temp/precip wise. Some of them really "look" like Nina, some kind of do and some really don't. I left out 2016-17 based on the DJF ONI value no longer being in Nina territory, but there's an argument for that winter to be considered a Nina.

Don't know about 1988-89, but I'd have 2011-12 in the mix. I view that one as sort of a reasonable worst case scenario though.

What's even more crazy about Dec 2000 is that the first 10 days of the month were pretty quiet, at least where I was. Then there was the big storm on the 11th and it was just an onslaught in the 3 weeks after.

May be within a couple degrees of record highs on Sat out in the western sub

2000-01 is obviously an analog that will be floated around with it being one of the limited number of examples of a 3rd year Nina. Everybody remembers that December, which was pretty historic in some areas, but another thing I remember is how quickly that winter pretty much shut off in my area once January 2001 arrived. I went back and looked at some stats to refresh my memory about how bad things got. Chicago only received 8.2" between Jan-Apr 2001 (4.0" of which came in a March storm), which is the 4th lowest amount of snow on record during that time, and the lowest since 1949. And it's not like it became warm overall or excessively dry. Just horrid timing with it usually not being cold enough at the right time. When that crazy December was happening, I wondered if we were on the way to an incredibly snowy winter. I loved getting so much snow that month, but it just quickly flamed out after such a remarkable start.

You work with what you're given.

Hot off the press

82% of the CONUS is D0 or worse, so yeah, pretty dry. 2020-21 was a pretty dry winter in the region for a Nina winter. Last winter had more of the classical look that you see on Nina composites.

Maybe we can get some good fires this weekend.

People would be surprised, especially if there's a family history. I'm actually a couple years older than my uncle was when he had his first heart attack, but I think there were some circumstances there that don't apply to me (being in Vietnam/frequent excessive drinking)

I noticed that LOT has stopped frost/freeze warnings this season. Interesting decision to stop it everywhere because I don't think that a good chunk of Cook county -- and maybe none of Chicago -- has had a freeze yet. Granted it's sort of a judgment call and probably like 95% of LOT's area has had a freeze. But have to wonder if plant life may be thriving in the city this weekend lol.

Maybe we can get a special appearance by Reed Timmer.

Certainly looks like a potentially dynamic system early next week. Will have to see how it trends and if we can muster enough instability for a severe threat.

Get ready for the Twister sequel. https://deadline.com/2022/10/twisters-sequel-forecast-spring-start-universal-amblin-finalize-director-1235147353/

Looks like it's snowing not too far east of South Bend.

What the hell is the 00z GFS doing around days 8-10+? It has a tropical system in the Pacific making landfall in Mexico, and the remnant vort survives into the Gulf of Mexico and heads toward Tampa. That gets flung northwest to Lake Michigan courtesy of interaction with a deep trough, with rain changing to heavy snow on the southern flank. I'm not gonna say impossible, but boy would a lot have to go right.

Yeah, there's that, although Chicago got fringed. But a prime example of heavy early November snow in Chicago leading to a good season is 1951-52. There was 13.3" in the first week of November and the final total was 66.4", which is the 6th snowiest on record.

At the rate things are going, have to wonder if a warning may eventually be justified for a small area (assuming not too much movement of the banding). Warning criteria amounts may be questionable but the out of season nature and impacts to the power grid may warrant bending the criteria.

IWX tweeted this

I would love to run some of these profiles in BUFKIT. Even without modifying for current lake water temps, SBCAPE is progged at 500+ J/kg downwind of the lake this evening. Would probably result in lake-induced CAPE values well over 1000 J/kg if I had to guess.

This weekend is going to feel like a torch compared to today's wx.

Took until November 12 to get a T at ORD last year.

Neat video