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Hoosier

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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Besides being somewhat farther north, Florence seems to be running a tad quicker than what the NHC had. Curious to see if the 00z runs will have a quicker progression inland.
  2. You know when the admin said no sh*t posts at the beginning of the thread? This is kinda what he had in mind. Yes, it's weakening, but based on available data there is no reason to think it will weaken all the way down to a tropical storm at landfall. Unless maybe if it did some ridiculous 5 day stall.
  3. Almost unanimous EPS support for a period of southwest movement
  4. Please double check images before posting them to be sure they are current.
  5. NHC has it at 115 mph at 2 pm Fri, around the time of forecasted landfall.
  6. Multiple pieces of guidance with a west bend at or shortly after landfall. The Euro just takes it to the extreme with the southwest motion.
  7. Back to having ugly rainfall totals again on the 00z Euro because of the stall. Over 40" around ILM.
  8. 00z Euro has it stalled at the NC/SC border at 96 hours.
  9. 00z GFS is west of 12z as well so far, so not just a 1 cycle move.
  10. If we're going to be talking about the NAM, yes it is southwest of 18z, but the position at 66 hr is almost identical to the 12z run at 78 hr. Just some context.
  11. That looks like the old school TWC graphics. Who knew that they're still in use.
  12. I doubt it. Of course it gets crazy hot there but the dews aren't high enough. My guess for highest heat index would be somewhere in the Midwest, which has the benefit of extra evapotranspiration from the crops.
  13. Agree... go with the reliable info when you have it. I just meant that the data to pick from is a bit limited by not having public access to the intrahour obs from many years back.
  14. Looks like that was intrahour. That's the thing... these wind chill records are almost always going to be hourly readings since I don't think it's possible to find intrahour observation archives from long ago.
  15. I was in Lafayette, IN back then. Looks like the wind chill bottomed out at -40
  16. 1/6/2014 was quite an experience. Besides the extreme cold, the fact that the temperature dropped to those levels so soon after the snowstorm meant that the roads were a mess. Even the main roads had that layer of hardened snow that wouldn't come off.
  17. The Kansas/Missouri records being colder is a little surprising, but there could be various reasons. Even could be some microclimate thing.
  18. Congrats on the job. Sucks that another poster is moving out of the region though.
  19. All that is is modeled precip amounts from the moment the temp drops to 32 or below, with no consideration for rates (heavier rates tend to have more runoff) or whether temps are more like 31-32 or in the 20s. They give an idea of where icing may occur but otherwise I would not take them literally.
  20. It's not good toward the Midwest. In fact, a pretty significant amount of the country is abnormally dry or in drought conditions. 90 day precip % of average The feedback loop can be much more of an issue in warmer months as evaporation rates increase, so you are right that this would be a much bigger concern if these dry conditions are still around in Spring.
  21. Agreed. I don't think I had ever been so paranoid/nervous about the weather. Knowing about 8/21/17 for over 10 years and having such a small window of opportunity was stressful. It would've taken me a while to get over it had I missed out lol. Glad things worked out for many folks.
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