Hoosier

I have not raked once yet. Certainly time now as a lot of leaves have fallen in the past week to 10 days, but it sucks being out there in winter temperatures. Just feels unnatural compared to shoveling snow. I guess I will have to pick my spots later this month when it warms up. Didn't do the final clean last year until December.

Early week still looking decent around the OV, especially for this early in the season.

There have been cases of 3.4 warming by another 1.0C or 1.1C from the JAS value, though. So if that happens this time, the peak would be flirting with or getting into moderate territory.

I'd have to take a trip to the lake for that.

Interesting study that was posted in the CC forum. It demonstrates not only an increase in tornado frequency east of the Plains, but an increase in favorable tornado environments as determined by STP. Using STP isn't foolproof of course as we have seen days where it's sky high and nothing happens. But it makes sense that higher STP accumulated over the long haul would lead to more activity. The authors don't explicitly say that the trends are due to climate change, but that it is in line with modeled changes. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.epdf?author_access_token=PQZthaEqlkut62uLi4HlpNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ofpugx93Jq3uh7IKWsjvSCCm9cT6oavbBDxy4CNfmgPbnVGCtRW0GfAXKcI3DSQ1vbeVbyw-jzqriwQAlEDMNsLcaDsYkvTU-SaxpOcafW-Q%3D%3D

I wonder if buckeye still reads JB. Who am I kidding?

The elite/great winters (77-78, 13-14, etc) generally didn't have that warmth in the northern US in November. Not that anyone has been calling for an all-time great winter. A cold November doesn't mean it will be a great winter, but all in all, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with that.

I hope this look changes for November. It has 3 more weeks. There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November.

Rosa is in beast mode. Going to weaken a ton before the Baja landfall though.

I remember being on the boards when it only ran once a day. Times have changed.

Oh boy. I've always wondered how much the Euro would be prone to flip flopping if it ran 4 times a day. Guess we'll find out. I wonder if there's going to be 6 hourly data out to 240 hours on the 6z/18z cycles?

The GFS is like "it's a Nino year, gotta flash some early season cold/snow"

I don't think we're done with warmth but should be done with 90s now. Wouldn't guarantee the last part though lol

Helps that there's no front around to interact anytime soon (even when Florence gets toward Ohio the front is still back in the western Midwest).

We'll see if the upcoming advisory drops it below hurricane strength, but so far it has held on to cat 1 for like 16 hours. Being in close proximity to the water has undoubtedly helped slow the weakening.

It would be kind of weird if the landfall wind speed ends up being less than the maximum sustained wind that has already been observed (82 mph Cape Lookout), but I guess that can happen in situations like this with a prolonged slowdown near a coast.

From 11 pm discussion Radar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the east side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to spread inland across southeastern North Carolina. The highest flight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer band that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area. However, the highest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land observation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have been running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet. All of these data support reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the higher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little higher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.

NHC corrected their statement about the winds. It's 100 mph.

*This is not a free pass to derail the thread again with talk about other storms.* That being said, Diana in 1984 could be somewhat useful to keep in the back of the mind for what is possible with intensity since it meandered around the same area also in mid September. After weakening from category 4, it was able to maintain category 2 status for a full day before weakening to category 1 at landfall. Of course no two storms are exactly the same and water temps/OHC are just part of the puzzle.

On that note, the updated position statements from NHC over the past couple hours show no gain in latitude, even though they are calling the motion wnw.

It's cliche but it's going to be a wobble watching nowcast thing given how close it will be to the coast and models sometimes being off with precise track even at relatively short leads.

Looks to be doing just that (paralleling) out to 48 hr.

957 mb and 110 mph on new advisory.

That would seem to match up with track trends. This is kind of obvious but the farther north it gets, the more unlikely it would be able to get back over the water on the way to SC.

I wouldn't use the NAM pressure to extrapolate the strength at landfall. Look what it initialized at compared to what it actually is. Something like the HWRF may do better but even then it's tricky.