Hoosier

That's 00z. Gotta be really careful with the timestamps on that site as they will give you an old image if the new run is not updated.

12z Euro looks to have shifted back north a bit. Assuming most of the snow misses, I'm becoming more interested locally in a period of strong winds with the long fetch down the lake, especially if the low passes south.

The 12z cycle has shifted to having more influence of the Lakes low/trough, which is what the 00z Euro was advertising. GFS for example

The FV3 and Euro are deeper with the trough/surface low in the Lakes at 96 hrs. That allows the incoming system to end up on the southern end of model solutions. Probably a hail mary to get this thing to track much farther south but that feature trending slower/stronger would be a way to do it.

This. After that it actually tries to move into the northern Plains.

There's something slightly odd about this loop. If you can point it out, you win my praise

I'd go 5 years without seeing a flake of snow and have it be 70 each year on Christmas... no second thoughts. I think that's the point where it goes from being cool to being kinda scary. Imagine if that actually happened. You probably would've had drifts over 25 feet out in the country.

GFS about to uncork next weekend.

Awesome. Thanks. I almost can't believe they showed a graphic like that. That has gotta be one of the most ridiculous maps I've ever seen in this region. A 100+ mile wide band of over 30" seems impossible to achieve. I do think the very high winds hurt ratios to some extent, but not to that degree.

Have spent the last couple nights reading through several of the GHD 2011 threads. Really took me back to that time. One request. Thundersnow posted the crazy CLTV map that showed widespread amounts over 30" around Chicagoland, but it's been deleted. If anyone still has that map, could you post it here?

It already exists but most sites don't carry it. weathermodels.com does

In Nino years, December is the month that has the highest chance of being problematic. There have been good Decembers in Ninos though. So if this December ends up cold/snowy (talking more regionwide and not some narrow area that gets a good storm) then I'd say buckle up.

Ongoing TT upgrade made me realize how much I've come to rely on them. Probably the model site I use the most, although I pretty much only use COD to look at models such as the HRRR/RAP. Funny how that is.

Granted it's fantasy range and the setup could change but one thing I noticed on that run is how the system basically hits a brick wall and sits in the Lakes.

12z Euro has a nice storm on the 26th-28th.

Oh, he already knows. I was giddy to mention it to him.

I am becoming the same way. Funny how preferences can evolve. Doubt I'll ever lose the desire for cold and snow around the holidays. Growing up in this type of climate, you associate that with the holidays.

I have not raked once yet. Certainly time now as a lot of leaves have fallen in the past week to 10 days, but it sucks being out there in winter temperatures. Just feels unnatural compared to shoveling snow. I guess I will have to pick my spots later this month when it warms up. Didn't do the final clean last year until December.

Early week still looking decent around the OV, especially for this early in the season.

I'd have to take a trip to the lake for that.

Interesting study that was posted in the CC forum. It demonstrates not only an increase in tornado frequency east of the Plains, but an increase in favorable tornado environments as determined by STP. Using STP isn't foolproof of course as we have seen days where it's sky high and nothing happens. But it makes sense that higher STP accumulated over the long haul would lead to more activity. The authors don't explicitly say that the trends are due to climate change, but that it is in line with modeled changes. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-018-0048-2.epdf?author_access_token=PQZthaEqlkut62uLi4HlpNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Ofpugx93Jq3uh7IKWsjvSCCm9cT6oavbBDxy4CNfmgPbnVGCtRW0GfAXKcI3DSQ1vbeVbyw-jzqriwQAlEDMNsLcaDsYkvTU-SaxpOcafW-Q%3D%3D

I wonder if buckeye still reads JB. Who am I kidding?

The elite/great winters (77-78, 13-14, etc) generally didn't have that warmth in the northern US in November. Not that anyone has been calling for an all-time great winter. A cold November doesn't mean it will be a great winter, but all in all, yeah, I'd rather take my chances with that.

I hope this look changes for November. It has 3 more weeks. There are no absolute correlations for November and the following winter, but I'd rather have an average/colder than average November.