Hoosier

Not putting much stock in it given the model inconsistency/disagreement. Just pointing it out. Still not a great outcome but better than all rain.

00z Canadian tries to get a little interesting with the late week system.

Agree. Looks like about a 5 day window for most areas to try to pull off a white Christmas.

SIC, here's a map I put together in 2012 that shows the biggest snowstorm in various cities. Since then, Springfield IL set a new record for biggest snowstorm (18.5" in late March 2013)... I think they are the only one but not sure. You can see what appears to be a bit of a dead zone where you are, but do keep in mind that some of it comes down to luck... like there was a storm in 1982 that produced 2 feet just east of St. Louis.

I don't disagree that the snowfall averages are less than what you would think for this part of the country, considering that it can snow for basically a third or more of the year. That being said, we are still a good 700-800 miles from the Gulf (maybe more in my case). The east coast often gets a moisture supply from multiple bodies of water, not just the Atlantic Ocean, and they have the thermal gradient with the ocean that makes it easier to get deeper systems. We can get Atlantic moisture thrown back into the Midwest/Ohio Valley but it's not as common.

Maybe you meant New England instead of West?

We had close to 10,000 posts between all the threads for GHD 2011. We've lost some bigger posters since then (or they don't post as much) but a big storm can still draw a crowd.

Pretty big shift. I wouldn't take that seriously at this point, and the EPS doesn't really agree.

You couldn't draw up a much better Lake Michigan coastal flooding/erosion scenario than the 12z GFS. Strong low meanders around southeast of the area. Odds of both things happening (a low that deep and meandering around) aren't great, but otherwise, hopefully somebody can thread the needle.

That's only natural though. Not everybody is the same but in general, the more you see something, the less noteworthy it becomes. I still get excited for the first snow of the season but after that occurs, the bar to get me excited typically gets higher.

Yeah but Buffalo doesn't hit 100. Ever.

Wish I could see a frame or two beyond this. System is still in the deepening stage.

Could be something to watch around the 13th-15th?

Yes but not often.

I'd love it. Big fan of extremes.

Beavis... not trying to be snarky, but you really should consider moving north when you can. Personally I feel fortunate to live in an area that gets to experience such variety, even though it's not really favorable for the most extreme weather (i.e. no -50 in winter or 110+ in summer, except maybe during the Dust Bowl lol).

00z GFS sort of lost the 3rd-4th storm but the GEM has it.

Euro appears to be stuck at 48 hours. I need to know what it has!

That lake warmth is tough at this time of year, especially in a marginal airmass with strong onshore flow. Didn't have anywhere near the amounts of farther west but I'll take what I got and hope the lake pays off at some point this winter.

Looks like a Nina type pattern for a period of time. Somebody tell mother nature.

No, and here's why. At least we got an epic wind driven sleet storm from that, and then a couple inches of snow to top it off. With the 2006 storm, the rug was pulled out at the last minute and it was pretty much all rain. I actually decided to chase the 2006 storm at the last minute. Call it an angry chase.

Let's get one thing straight. NOTHING supplants 12/1/06.

Yeah, that was the storm that screwed downtown Chicago. Can't see it on that map but here's a zoomed in map below. Had some temperature issues around here during the morning of the 21st but then a lake enhanced band came through in the afternoon and it ripped as hard as I had ever seen it snow in November. Ended up with 6".

Looks like there could be an overlap area that gets in on 2 November warning criteria snows just a few years apart. The other one being the November 20-21, 2015 storm:

I think I remember hawkeye saying that he's never had a foot of snow. Wonder what he thinks about that run lol