Hoosier

Hopefully it's stronger than 1978.

That actually seems like a decent stretch for a place like Indy. I don't know for sure but my guess is that the long term frequency (since records began) for those categories may be somewhat less.

See the differences aloft at 96 hours? The GFS is much more cutoff while the GEM has more of a phased look. There is not much support for a GEM type solution, at least among the major models, and the 00z UKMET that just came in does not support the GEM either. While the GEM is not the most likely outcome, it shouldn't be discounted entirely given how models struggle to resolve these cutoff low setups.

00z GEM is still trying to get snow out of that late week system.

Phases with a northern stream disturbance. That would be the way to get a snowier solution since the cutoff itself doesn't have cold enough thermal profiles.

Significant northern stream interaction with time. Looks plausible.

The upcoming cutoff is annoying. Could waste a normally good track. Guess can still hope it trends toward having just enough cold air.

Not putting much stock in it given the model inconsistency/disagreement. Just pointing it out. Still not a great outcome but better than all rain.

00z Canadian tries to get a little interesting with the late week system.

Agree. Looks like about a 5 day window for most areas to try to pull off a white Christmas.

SIC, here's a map I put together in 2012 that shows the biggest snowstorm in various cities. Since then, Springfield IL set a new record for biggest snowstorm (18.5" in late March 2013)... I think they are the only one but not sure. You can see what appears to be a bit of a dead zone where you are, but do keep in mind that some of it comes down to luck... like there was a storm in 1982 that produced 2 feet just east of St. Louis.

I don't disagree that the snowfall averages are less than what you would think for this part of the country, considering that it can snow for basically a third or more of the year. That being said, we are still a good 700-800 miles from the Gulf (maybe more in my case). The east coast often gets a moisture supply from multiple bodies of water, not just the Atlantic Ocean, and they have the thermal gradient with the ocean that makes it easier to get deeper systems. We can get Atlantic moisture thrown back into the Midwest/Ohio Valley but it's not as common.

Maybe you meant New England instead of West?

We had close to 10,000 posts between all the threads for GHD 2011. We've lost some bigger posters since then (or they don't post as much) but a big storm can still draw a crowd.

Pretty big shift. I wouldn't take that seriously at this point, and the EPS doesn't really agree.

You couldn't draw up a much better Lake Michigan coastal flooding/erosion scenario than the 12z GFS. Strong low meanders around southeast of the area. Odds of both things happening (a low that deep and meandering around) aren't great, but otherwise, hopefully somebody can thread the needle.

That's only natural though. Not everybody is the same but in general, the more you see something, the less noteworthy it becomes. I still get excited for the first snow of the season but after that occurs, the bar to get me excited typically gets higher.

Yeah but Buffalo doesn't hit 100. Ever.

Wish I could see a frame or two beyond this. System is still in the deepening stage.

Could be something to watch around the 13th-15th?

Yes but not often.

I'd love it. Big fan of extremes.

Beavis... not trying to be snarky, but you really should consider moving north when you can. Personally I feel fortunate to live in an area that gets to experience such variety, even though it's not really favorable for the most extreme weather (i.e. no -50 in winter or 110+ in summer, except maybe during the Dust Bowl lol).

00z GFS sort of lost the 3rd-4th storm but the GEM has it.

Euro appears to be stuck at 48 hours. I need to know what it has!