Hoosier

Flipping through that run, very noticeable how jumpy the NAM is with the surface low (due to all the convection in the Gulf) even though it eventually ends up in the general agreed upon area.

lol I like that phrase Don't want to give false hope, but just think it's possible that the changeover is undermodeled. Just need relatively minor tweaks in the grand scheme. Even if that is the case, accumulations could still be hurt by the relatively warm bl temps.

12z Euro did get snowier overall with the late week system, especially eastern OH north/eastward.

Digging into the thermal profiles, it seems that the problem is less at 850 mb than from about 925 mb to the surface. Granted we just don't have much cold air to work with, but there's a zone where 850's drop below 0C while 925 mb to the surface is above freezing, so the models are showing rain. The models could be right and the low level warmth is simply too much to overcome for much of a changeover, but imo that is more of a "fixable" issue than having to get below 0C 850 mb temps to materialize out of nowhere.

Will take a while to refine the details. Wouldn't take much colder air to result in more snow on the back side.

I mentioned this last night but this trough for the late week storm is pretty bonkers. Here are a couple maps from the GFS. The first one shows 500 mb height anomalies. As you can see, the scale is maxed out in Alabama. The second map shows 500 mb normalized height anomalies, which basically gives an idea of how far out of the norm something is (anomaly ÷ standard deviation). Again quite impressive. The takeaway is that it's pretty unusual to see such low 500 mb heights that far south. Whether this translates into something good for our region is another matter, but kinda cool if you appreciate the meteorology.

The anomalies on the trough/closed low in the deep South are pretty impressive. I'm almost wondering if there's so much energy diving south/east if the surface low tries to make a move toward I-95/east coast. Not saying it happens but just one of the things that could go wrong besides the problematic thermal profiles.

Big bertha brings in the new year if the GFS is right.

Storm maxes out earlier, snowier run overall.

00z GFS isn't out far enough yet to show the late week storm, but man, it looks like it might light a nuke. Lots of energy/amplification aloft.

Who knows if it will verify or not, but the GFS has a 500 mb jet max of 150 kts on the east coast with that storm late week. That is about as strong as it gets.

Lately it seems so difficult to have a nice cold/snowy stretch starting a week or two before Christmas AND HOLD through the 25th. I can't even remember the last time it happened around here. 2010? Maybe before that? Last year was nice in that it snowed on Christmas Eve, but talk about getting saved at the last minute. December 2016 started out good but the 25th was mild and the snow rapidly melting.

Good posts guys. Does look like a La Nina flavor to the pattern and sustained wintry conditions may be hard to come by for a bit (except perhaps northern tier).

If only it could get its act together a bit faster (though that would probably screw areas farther east). Deepens rapidly.

There it is. Hope we get some good trends in the coming days.

When I get about 20 miles south of here. I'm only partially joking. It's a different makeup politically and even the accent has some differences. Growing up and spending many years of my life in the Chicago metro area, I have a Chicago flavor in my voice. I would definitely say Kentucky is more like the South than not.

Somebody turn the snow (back) on

I am interested in the 12/21-12/25 timeframe, but interest doesn't guarantee results. If something does happen, maybe we'll call it Jeblizzard.

Hopefully it's stronger than 1978.

That actually seems like a decent stretch for a place like Indy. I don't know for sure but my guess is that the long term frequency (since records began) for those categories may be somewhat less.

See the differences aloft at 96 hours? The GFS is much more cutoff while the GEM has more of a phased look. There is not much support for a GEM type solution, at least among the major models, and the 00z UKMET that just came in does not support the GEM either. While the GEM is not the most likely outcome, it shouldn't be discounted entirely given how models struggle to resolve these cutoff low setups.

00z GEM is still trying to get snow out of that late week system.

Phases with a northern stream disturbance. That would be the way to get a snowier solution since the cutoff itself doesn't have cold enough thermal profiles.

Significant northern stream interaction with time. Looks plausible.

The upcoming cutoff is annoying. Could waste a normally good track. Guess can still hope it trends toward having just enough cold air.