Hoosier

Starting to feel good about my chances next weekend, which is strange considering how much things have sucked. Maybe some blizzard potential depending on how it comes together. Ok, brake pump. Let's just get the snow lol

When I saw that avatar I thought to myself "I bet that's Malacka." Sure enough.

I was checking out some stats for Detroit and the last time they were this deep into January with less than 8" of snow was 2011-12. How the mighty have fallen.

Indeed

Buckeye, I'd say Jan 99 is the prime example of both of us getting significant snow from the same storm. You will rarely see a northeastward moving system hit both of us like that. I actually think it would be a little easier for both of us to get hammered by a clipper on steroids moving nw to se.

It was a storm that trended northwest and brought an unexpected snow to my area. The northwest trend screwed buckeye's area.

Makes sense. And I probably got screwed on most of the storms you love.

Where does 12/24/2002 rank?

You beat LAF in that storm? Aw man, I thought we were tops in Indiana.

More Chicago stats. You would think after a snowy November that it wouldn't take until well into January to receive the next 1" snowfall, and you'd be right. For purposes of this post, I'm using 6"+ Novembers to define "snowy" Here's the list of Novembers with at least 6" of snow and the date of the next calendar day 1" snow. All but one occurred in the first half of December. And what is it about December 2? lol Year/November snow total/Next 1" snow 1940 / 14.8" / December 2 1895 / 14.5" / December 2 1951 / 14.3" / December 14 2018 / 12.7" / None 2015 / 11.2" / December 2 1975 / 10.8" / December 8 1953 / 7.6" / December 15 1893 / 7.5" / December 2 1978 / 7.1" / December 1 1950 / 7.0" / December 6 1891 / 6.8" / December 6 1959 / 6.6" / December 23 1977 / 6.3" / December 1 1947 / 6.2" / December 10

Well, nobody should be taking that map literally. About the only conclusion I'd draw is that winter is not over, but I didn't need a 46 day map to tell me that.

DT was at the conference in 2006. I remember you being there in 2006 or 2007 (or maybe both?) DT is a total ass on the forums but was much different in person. I don't know why he couldn't be more civil online.

lol I remember him doing that blog post. What precipitated that anyway? Was it the infamous big dog map that you did? As far as long range, I've never been into it as much as shorter range stuff. We definitely lack the long range discussions on our side, which is a bit unfortunate.

What site did you try to go to? Fortunately, MRCC has been a nice workaround when looking up old data, but I know some stuff is hard to find outside of the NOAA sites.

It appears that the cold will come later this month and hopefully decent snow chances too outside of the belts. I'm a bit concerned about a northwest flow/clipper dominant pattern, which is not the greatest unless you're ok with building snow gradually.

^interesting thing about that data. It seems like it happens in clusters and then with 20-30+ year breaks.

Might have to consider bumping the ol Chicago futility thread eventually. Anyway, we are not talking about historic futility since November was a good month, but you can still find futility if you look for it. So if we just restrict the period to meteorological winter, here are the years without a 1" calendar day snow from December 1 through January 5. Not a very large number of years here, and obviously it narrows even more the farther you go into January. 1889-90 1896-97 1898-99 1906-07 1912-13 1936-37 1939-40 1941-42 1943-44 1982-83 2001-02 2012-13 2018-19 Daily data for 1996-97 is a little sketchy, but Ieft it out because snow depth measurements would suggest there was at least a 1" snow in December 1996.

Yeah but ratios will probably take a hit with those winds.

Been a struggle even in the lake belt of Indiana.

I gotta see this JB video. Sounds like a corker.

I didn't see the forecasts from all the big guys. If they were going for a colder/snowier than average winter, that's one thing. Sometimes you're wrong, and who knows, maybe we'll get a huge flip yet. I'm saying that anybody who was going for a historic winter was just trying to get extra attention, because I don't believe the science is capable of flagging that on a seasonal timescale, especially for snowfall.

You know what I think? If you ever see somebody say that the winter is going to be epic, turn away as fast as you can. I think you can look at analogs, etc and come up with a general idea of how the pattern may go, but even if you're right and it looks like the greatest thing you've ever seen, you could get screwed on enough individual systems to prevent it from being an epic winter. Let's face it, we judge the winter more on snow output.

I take some weird pleasure in the meltdowns too.

I would. You need more than just a bad pattern to go completely snowless for that long in the heart of winter. You need very bad luck within a bad pattern.