Hoosier

Scary stuff. Glad things turned out relatively ok.

Would be curious to know how many of those were convective gusts and how many were synoptic.

I'd drown if it got extended 80 miles south.

Damn

Aurora was sustained at 51 mph gusting to 64 mph at 12:50 pm.

Setup on the GFS for next weekend looks strangely familiar. I know I've seen a farther northwest version of it very recently. I just can't quite put my finger on it.

Surface low seems to have deepened a little on the slower end. So while the gusts have been pretty impressive, may have seen even a few mph higher in that outcome.

STL gusted to 66 mph earlier.

GRR comments on the rarity of such a deep storm. These 3 examples were all in November though. Rapid cyclogenesis will occur late today through Sunday as a 998 mb sfc low currently over southeastern Kansas strengthens to around 972 mb in a position between Sault St Marie and James Bay early Sunday evening. As noted by our previous shift this strong of a sfc low will rival the historic fall storms like the 1998 storm, the Fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the Armistice Day storm of 1940.

A wall of wind

Wind potential still looks rather impressive on the 00z runs. I think you could even argue for a window of 60-65 mph gusts in the LOT cwa (and elsewhere) with a prolonged period of 50+ mph gust potential.

Pretty impressive coverage of the High Wind Watch

Have a hard time figuring out why they are following the NAM so closely when it has been struggling with this system (playing catchup). Also, this looks to me like a case where the NAM is again mishandling temps in the warm sector. There is no snowcover to worry about so I see little reason to think that temps won't overperform what the NAM is suggesting. This should help some sfc based instability to get farther north... to what extent is the question of course.

00z NAM still looking like it will run on the weaker/southeast side.

The areas that will get hammered even more by high winds are the eastern sides of the lakes. I'm looking at the Buffalo area in particular.

I am digging the wind potential. Almost everything looks to be lining up favorably. Many areas could have a period of warning criteria winds surrounded by a longer duration of advisory level winds. Also something to think about is that whatever has been loosened up/weakened by the ice storm(s) may get knocked down easier.

I understand where he's coming from but agree that he is overstating it a bit. Going back to the winter of 2015-16... considering it was a super Nino, the final result could've been worse imby. Had the November storm which was respectable for the calendar but didn't get the huge pounding that ORD and north/west received. The sleet storm in December was interesting even though I've come to hate sleet lol. Then there was the late February storm, which focused on northwest IN. Downtown Chicago struggled big time in the November storm and the February storm had the heavier snow just south. All in all, that was a bad winter for the downtown area but a bit less bad here. 2016-17 had that awful futility streak during the winter even though the final total was not near a record low. 2017-18 was pretty forgettable imo outside of that stretch in early February. This winter has been very ordinary so far. Hopefully we get a big one yet, preferably targeting downtown and into northwest IN.

Don't forget that we all used to be in the Central/Western subforum prior to the creation of the Lakes/Ohio Valley subforum. I don't think the admins would be too keen on adding additional subforums at this point. Besides, the issue of Ohio and other areas fighting over storms has largely been resolved since the creation of the separate regional threads. Of course the folks who are in these threads are welcome to participate in the main storm threads too. Almost all of us are adults here and there's no reason that people from Wisconsin can't have productive storm discussion with people from Ohio without feeling like somebody is trying to take the storm away from them (as if that's possible, lol)

I've conceded the possibility of significant wintry weather with this one. Might as well go for the quicker strengthening (which would likely take it farther nw) to maximize the wind potential.

Forgot to post this picture of the moon from last night. Was in the right place at the right time to capture this shot. Crappy cell phone pic... it looked better in person. Been a while since I've seen it look so spectacular and so low in the sky. A casual observer might be tempted to think they are looking at the setting sun. However, you would expect the color of the surrounding sky to look different. Also, this shot is facing east, not west.

The wind potential looks fairly decent with this, assuming it deepens as progged with much of the deepening occurring from the Plains to the Lakes.

Interested to see how the front end thump plays out in the Ohio Valley, given the bad track for that area. It looks pretty respectable on some models.

Wow

That map looks pretty good around here. Just hit 30" with the recent snow.

NAM isn't really 15"... that is TT nonsense due to awful algorithm. That being said, curious to see how this plays out for you guys. Front end snow on an unfavorable track isn't unusual but a warning criteria snowfall is, though it can happen as has been mentioned earlier.