Hoosier

Have yet to get into the really warm air. High will probably occur later than usual, maybe 5-6 pm as the warm front will be through here by then in addition to still having some lingering diurnal heating.

Yeah, Palm Sunday had about 140 kts max with 100+ kts leaking out into the prefrontal warm sector. There was a paper done a few years ago that had a synthetic sounding from South Bend around tornado time and I think it had like 107 kts at 500 mb. The flow for today's setup is more meridional, and overall, I don't think we would've seen an outcome like Palm Sunday even with better moisture (I guess that is the safer stance to take haha)

Maybe a bit early to be talking amounts but I think it's looking good for band of several inches in the heaviest band. The question is whether the several is 3-5" or more like 6+. Raw 2m temps on multiple models are showing temps of 32-34 even during primetime warming on Sunday afternoon.

Did I really just post the 84 hr NAM for snow in mid April?

Got a shot at having the warmest day of the year so far tomorrow. Some guidance is spitting out upper 70s... would be quite a swing from what it's going to be in the morning.

Looks like it could be a decent snowmaker for somebody, especially by mid April standards. I think in a way, the current system is going to help the cause with this one. A reservoir of sub 0C 850 mb temps will be left behind, so there will be less work to do from a dynamic cooling perspective. Really it's just the lowest levels that will have to cool, and it looks like that will happen.

I'm just still not totally convinced yet that it's going to get all the way to the WI border, even though much of the guidance seems to favor it. If it does, I would lean on it being delayed... like after 6 pm. Counterpoint... there won't be a lot of convection around to impede the northward progress through morning and into afternoon.

HRRR has some very nice warming in the warm sector tomorrow. Problem is it comes at the expense of dews mixing out. There's a middle ground of temps being bit lower/dews a bit higher which wouldn't be such an instability killer like the above scenario.

No real significant changes on the new day 2 outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IL INTO WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible from portions of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong and well developed cyclone centered over KS/NE Thursday morning will move northeastward to southern MN through the period. A deep (likely sub 990 mb) surface low along the KS/NE border is forecast to occlude and slowly fill as it develops northeastward in tandem with the mid/upper-level cyclone. A warm front extending eastward from this low will shift northward across parts of the Upper Midwest and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region by Thursday evening, while a cold front sweeps eastward over much of the lower/mid MS Valley by Thursday night. ...Upper Midwest into the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes... Scattered thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of IA and southern MN at the start of the period in a zone of strong low-level warm air advection. In the wake of this morning activity, weak destabilization should occur across parts of central/eastern IA into southern WI as the warm front shifts northward. Very strong flow will be present in the mid/upper levels as a 100+ kt south-southwesterly at 500 mb overspreads this region. Additional low-topped convective development will probably occur by early afternoon along/just ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, and most guidance suggests thunderstorms quickly grow upscale into a small line. Isolated strong to locally damaging winds appear to be the main threat as the strong flow becomes mixed to the surface. A tornado or two may also be possible as storms cross the warm front and encounter greater low-level SRH before eventually become elevated. However, low-level moisture will remain limited across this region. For now, confidence in a predominately discrete storm mode remains too low across central/eastern IA into southern WI to include higher severe probabilities. Thunderstorms posing mainly an isolated damaging wind threat should develop along the length of the cold front by late Thursday afternoon from eastern MO into western IL. Relatively greater moisture (potentially upper 50s to around 60 surface dewpoints) is forecast to be present across parts of eastern IL into western IN, and even though storms may not reach this area until late Thursday evening, an isolated wind risk should persist given the strength of the low/mid-level flow. Have therefore made no changes to the Slight risk for damaging winds across this region. This severe threat should eventually wane with eastward extent across the OH Valley late in the period as low-level moisture becomes increasingly meager. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 04/10/2019

I'm skeptical that the warm front is even going to get through all of northeast IL in time.

Nice to see a bit more moisture being progged. As was mentioned earlier, directional shear definitely lacking overall except right on the warm front. Speed shear looks tremendous though.

Really is. I remember checking my phone 1 minute before totality and couldn't believe how much light was still coming through.

Hopefully everybody will have nice weather. Probably an unrealistic thought for that time of year though. Btw, this will be the only total in the 21st century to pass through Mexico, US and Canada.

As someone who witnessed the total in 2017, I'd highly recommend getting into the totality zone. Being in the 99% area seems like it would be pretty much the same as 100%, but it's not. There's significant dimming at 99%+ but I couldn't believe how rapidly the surroundings changed in the final seconds.

Next total solar eclipse in the US is 5 years from today. Would be nice to have weather like today. There will be a couple solar eclipses for the sub prior to that... non-total of course. June 2021 is a morning/sunrise eclipse that will occur in a good chunk of the region. I intend to go to a place along Lake Michigan for that one... would look great with the sun rising.

Since today will be the first 70 at ORD and RFD...

Yeah, I'd say I'm more interested in the northern zone of the warm sector than anything farther south.

72 here even though there's quite a bit of clouds. Have definitely noticed the grass getting greener in recent days.

Hmm, not sure about this one. Moisture return looks iffy. Wind fields aren't lacking for getting severe weather. I think there will be some severe weather but thinking a run of the mill episode as it looks now. Will be watching to see if moisture can trend better.

Tricky temperature forecast. Could envision that warm front getting hung up longer somewhere in the metro area (aided by cold lake) until the surface low makes its closest approach.

Pays to be on the good side. Still, not a total disaster of a day for ORD/MDW

Really nice day today. Even better weather on the way.

12z Euro is south of the 00z run, but not as far south as the Friday 12z run.

Admittedly it's early for details, but a look at the GFS forecast soundings would suggest the possibility of thundersnow. Fairly steep mid level lapse rates work their way into the cold sector. Will have a lot to consider when determining actual snow amounts. Temps look to get into the 70s on Monday in a large chunk of the potential snow area. Ground warmth will be a factor to some degree so realizing the heavier rates will be important to fight against the melting/compaction tendency. Have to consider the April sun angle as well... not that it won't accumulate during the daytime but may have more efficient accumulation at night. All in all, certainly looks like it could be a memorable April snowstorm for some areas, but I would definitely advise against riding the clown map output verbatim given the aforementioned factors.

Dailies for Chicago back then were 1.1", 5.4", 0.3". So that qualifies as a 6" storm even though there wasn't a calendar day 6".