Hoosier
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Everything posted by Hoosier
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2020 was particularly warm in Nov. I don't remember it last year so much.
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Any new winter outlooks to talk about?
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Ooh ooh. I know.
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2022 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion
Hoosier replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Instability looks minimal at best on Saturday, but the strengthening background wind fields in association with the deepening surface low may be enough to force some strong to marginally severe gusts to the surface in any organized line of showers. -
I vividly remember that day. SPC issued a high risk area for it. Also remember it got pretty chilly with a bit of snow afterward. I recall seeing pictures of snow on top of the debris.
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GFS really goes to town with the system this weekend. Not the deepest system we've ever seen, but it strengthens at an explosive rate. Would have a rapidly developing high wind threat on Saturday should it pan out, but a slower/delayed deepening than shown would mitigate that potential rather significantly. So, wait and see.
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ORD finished October exactly average in temps. Not easy to hit it on the head like that. As mentioned in a previous post, the month was running like -4 on the 20th so that is a pretty good reversal. This is the first October since 1995 that finished average or below WITHOUT having a freeze.
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LOT should probably expand the fog advisory. It is super foggy out here.
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What day was that?
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We made it last winter. It would have to get bad in here for them to pick a mod... like extremely bad. Lakes/OV ain't exactly a priority.
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The large scale pattern seems like it could be favorable for severe threat(s) in the sub, but we'll have to see if any individual system cooperates.
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Something I'm watching is how long of a gap there will be between first freeze at RFD and ORD. Rockford had it on 10/8, so it's 23 days and counting. On average, it's more like 2 weeks between first freeze at RFD and ORD, but they have done it on the same day in some years. Perhaps more amazing is that Rockford has been AOB freezing 9 times. It seems like it would be pretty unusual for Rockford to get out to a 9-0 lead, but I haven't checked into that.
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If you had to draw up a "classic" Halloween day, this would be it. Not too warm, damp and foggy. Literally looks just like the ending scene outside of the hospital in the old Halloween II movie.
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This is a surprisingly warm look for November on the late run(s). Have to wonder if it will end up this mild.
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November 2022 temperature forecast contest
Hoosier replied to Roger Smith's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Christ on a cracker. -
Here's Dec. The first ~2/3 of that month was pretty mild, but then it flipped so hard that it wiped out the warmth on the monthly avg.
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Even with the sub 32 metric that you're using, it wasn't warm overall for those months. Here are October/November 1993 temp departures Here it is against the 1961-1990 averages that would've been valid at the time:
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This gets into interesting territory about perceptions/recollections, especially with the passage of time. Lack of snow is not necessarily because it was warm. But if you're missing out on snow and you're in an area that is used to having it, it may tend to alter how things are remembered.
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All due respect, I think your memory is a bit off. September and October 1993 weren't unusually warm months anywhere in the region.
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There actually was a snowstorm in the OV area at the end of October 1993.
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Most of them probably won't even break 15" this winter. I guess there is something to be said for chasing the big one, which that area certainly pulls off from time to time, but individual storms aren't even forecastable this far out.
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A little far out to fully commit, but we may be setting up a weekend delight for the first weekend of November.
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I started a trend... a number of others aren't there anymore.
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November 24
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Counterpoint: the futility record for Chicago will be out of play before the end of December 2022
