Hoosier

In anticipation of what is looking to be a very active day, just a friendly reminder to keep things focused/on topic as much as possible. Also, rapid fire posting is likely to occur later and if you notice that you have posted something that was already posted, you can help by deleting your post.

Don't ask me when but I know they have done it in the South, though maybe not so many hours in advance.

I do recall ORD running on the cold side during the daytime on 1/30 (have to actually look at hourlies since the high occurred at midnight). Maybe that is what he is referring to.

They need to get going on the corn... would be a shame to cut into the 80 degree dew days.

Some decent wind damage reports from that.

Good thing it's raining again.

It is almost 30 degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. Temps later this afternoon could end up being almost 40 degrees warmer than yesterday at the same time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1206 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1202 AM HAIL 2 SE KANEVILLE 41.82N 88.49W 05/17/2019 M2.50 INCH KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 2.25 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, LOTS OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.

Core is missing safely north. Whiting/Gary area probably got some hail. I wonder if that big boy out west will stay on the current heading or try to nudge south.

There is another decent hail producer on the southeast side of Chicago moving out over the lake, though not as big as the one farther west.

Cell now warned here. Sounded like some small hail a few minutes ago.

Yikes

Prolific lightning with the stuff coming in here. Can't even count 1 second between flashes.

91? Dang. Almost 20 degrees cooler here.

From latest outlook ...Midwest... Considered increasing tornado probabilities and adding significant hail but low confidence exists in whether supercells can be sustained in the warm sector across IL/IN. A slowly decaying MCS is ongoing near the IL/WI border within a warm advection regime. Morning CAM guidance has poorly handled with most struggling to maintain any semblance of convection beyond initialization. The stratiform region across Lake MI should have an impact on downstream destabilization in Lower MI given that richer boundary-layer moisture characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew points is currently confined from IL west. It is possible that the MCS may not entirely dissipate as warm advection persists through the period. Renewed development on the upshear side would seemingly be most likely along trailing convective outflow. Along the eastern extent of the Great Plains elevated mixed layer at peak heating, robust upstream diabatic heating should result in large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Veering of the wind profile with height on the periphery of moderate mid-level northwesterlies will favor supercell structures. An evolution to another MCS with wind/hail risks appears probable tonight towards the OH Valley.

Definitely some potential but will have a better sense of it in the morning.

This is brutal if it verifies

Boo

Friday is looking a lot different from the last time I checked the models (a couple days ago). Now looks like the front could be south.

Large scale pattern certainly looks favorable. Devil is in the details.

I believe that is playing a big role. Negative NAO was hard to come by during winter but it has been negative more often than not for the past month or so.

Impressive stuff.

Went tornado warned but it looks like it just expired.

A+ weather today. Unfortunately for the upcoming week, probably not so much.

North/south gradient?