Hoosier

Warm front is still pretty far south. On a more localized scale for parts of IL/WI, the E/SE flow off of a relatively cool Lake Michigan should further limit a tornado threat close to the lake.

Some clearing spreading from Iowa into western IL. Should get a nice bump in temps in northern IL later. I do wonder if somewhat greater severe chances could set up in the central/southern LOT cwa compared to farther north, but it's a bit unclear.

CAMs do show at least some potential.

Had no idea there was a Muncie, Illinois. Learn something new all the time.

Roger, do you forsee high end heat waves or just consistently significantly warmer than average temps to get to your outcome? It has been so wet in the central US that it is hard to believe that won't feed back and try to put a lid on some of the heat. Then again, if the pattern dries out then who knows.

Preliminary rating for the Jefferson City tornado is higher end EF3.

Tomorrow looks conditionally interesting in the north/east part of the risk area, i.e. in this region.

83 mph gust in Watseka.

Radar isn't much to look at but it has gotten surprisingly gusty in the showers currently moving through.

Another shot of the Jeff City tornado, taken from the Capitol Plaza Hotel

Tornado warned storm headed toward Pontiac, IL.

Interesting seeing a few counties on the northern end of that watch that aren't in the polygon at all.

Smaller bodies of water can indeed affect temperatures, but it is on a much smaller scale. Lake Michigan is capable of reducing temperatures by much more so that would be the place to live close to if you're looking for days with more significant cooling.

Fairly substantial evolution in the outlooks today. 06z vs 20z

Decent pressure bounces at MLI. Notice the dip from 10:30-10:35 pm. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/getobext.php?sid=KMLI

Wake low?

Thank God for lag time between max daylight and temp averages.

I'm saying that the people calling bust often post nothing or barely anything -- positive or negative -- prior to the event.

Is that in a warning update/severe weather statement because the last one I have from them is from 4:58 pm. Maybe just a problem on my end.

Exactly. And as was mentioned earlier, often the people who call bust are barely around (if at all) to offer substantive contributions prior to the event. It's like their main purpose is to waltz into the thread with the b word. There is no problem discussing potential red flags as we see them in real time. That is very beneficial. The bust word has meaning and personally I'd rather not see it used while an event is still ongoing.

Yeah it's been annoying. Like you said, there'll be a nice day or two but it hasn't been able to sustain. I'd even settle for 60s but there have been some days that have struggled to 50 or not even gotten there.

Used to be that a high risk for tornadoes was issued when at least 20 were expected to occur in an area roughly the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle. I assume that's still the case because I haven't been able to find anything to the contrary but does anyone know if it has changed?

Janetjanet, we are discussing a bust here. Take the storm talk somewhere else.

I suppose I will chime in on this. While a 4/27/2011 level event doesn't appear like it will happen, it is important to keep in mind that high risk events are not created equal. Things like 4/3/1974 and 4/27/2011 almost deserve their own category above high risk. There's a lot of events over the years that haven't risen to that extreme level but still verify as high risk. A more run of the mill high risk (oxymoron I know) outcome still can't be ruled out imo, but we'll see what happens throughout the evening.