Hoosier

Some clearing spreading from Iowa into western IL. Should get a nice bump in temps in northern IL later. I do wonder if somewhat greater severe chances could set up in the central/southern LOT cwa compared to farther north, but it's a bit unclear.

CAMs do show at least some potential.

Had no idea there was a Muncie, Illinois. Learn something new all the time.

Roger, do you forsee high end heat waves or just consistently significantly warmer than average temps to get to your outcome? It has been so wet in the central US that it is hard to believe that won't feed back and try to put a lid on some of the heat. Then again, if the pattern dries out then who knows.

Preliminary rating for the Jefferson City tornado is higher end EF3.

Tomorrow looks conditionally interesting in the north/east part of the risk area, i.e. in this region.

83 mph gust in Watseka.

Radar isn't much to look at but it has gotten surprisingly gusty in the showers currently moving through.

Another shot of the Jeff City tornado, taken from the Capitol Plaza Hotel

Tornado warned storm headed toward Pontiac, IL.

Interesting seeing a few counties on the northern end of that watch that aren't in the polygon at all.

Fairly substantial evolution in the outlooks today. 06z vs 20z

Yeah it's been annoying. Like you said, there'll be a nice day or two but it hasn't been able to sustain. I'd even settle for 60s but there have been some days that have struggled to 50 or not even gotten there.

From latest outlook ...Midwest... Considered increasing tornado probabilities and adding significant hail but low confidence exists in whether supercells can be sustained in the warm sector across IL/IN. A slowly decaying MCS is ongoing near the IL/WI border within a warm advection regime. Morning CAM guidance has poorly handled with most struggling to maintain any semblance of convection beyond initialization. The stratiform region across Lake MI should have an impact on downstream destabilization in Lower MI given that richer boundary-layer moisture characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew points is currently confined from IL west. It is possible that the MCS may not entirely dissipate as warm advection persists through the period. Renewed development on the upshear side would seemingly be most likely along trailing convective outflow. Along the eastern extent of the Great Plains elevated mixed layer at peak heating, robust upstream diabatic heating should result in large buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. Veering of the wind profile with height on the periphery of moderate mid-level northwesterlies will favor supercell structures. An evolution to another MCS with wind/hail risks appears probable tonight towards the OH Valley.

Definitely some potential but will have a better sense of it in the morning.

This is brutal if it verifies

Boo

Friday is looking a lot different from the last time I checked the models (a couple days ago). Now looks like the front could be south.

Large scale pattern certainly looks favorable. Devil is in the details.

Chad Evans included these radar and velocity images in a writeup he did for the 25th anniversary of the 1994 West Lafayette F4 tornado. It is a reminder that although more discrete supercells tend to be associated with a higher share of the violent tornadoes, that is not always the case. This tornado passed through the northern and western portion of West Lafayette. 3 killed and dozens injured, but the outcome could very well have been even worse if it tracked farther south through the Purdue campus.

Gotta admit that part of me is rooting for the weekend storm to come south. I'd be perfectly fine with farther north though. Right now it's in between crap zone which is probably the most likely outcome.

At least we'll avoid Chicxulub.

Really is. I remember checking my phone 1 minute before totality and couldn't believe how much light was still coming through.

Hopefully everybody will have nice weather. Probably an unrealistic thought for that time of year though. Btw, this will be the only total in the 21st century to pass through Mexico, US and Canada.